Prediction Markets

Latest news, analysis and regulatory developments in prediction markets, including platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Coverage includes legal frameworks, compliance issues, and the evolving role of event-based trading within global financial and iGaming ecosystems.

Explore how prediction markets work, their legal status, and how they differ from traditional gambling in our prediction markets guide and prediction markets regulation guide.

Prediction Markets Start Driving Global Oil Trading, Raising Trust Concerns

Key Points Traders now lean on prediction market data from Polymarket as signals inside oil trades and algorithm systems with rising urgency. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Intercontinental Exchange bring this data into research and trading tools with growing reliance. Concerns grow around insider actions, weak liquidity, and risk of manipulation with feedback loops forming […]

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Texas Prioritise Prediction Markets In 2026 Interim Agenda

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has directed lawmakers to study prediction markets as part of the state’s 2026 interim legislative agenda. He tasked the Senate State Affairs Committee with reviewing what he described as the “sudden inundation” of prediction market gambling. The directive focuses on how these platforms operate and whether they are using federal […]

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Kalshi Set To Introduce Margin Trading Following NFA Approval

Kalshi has taken a key step toward introducing margin trading after its affiliate, Kinetic Markets LLC, received approval to operate as a futures commission merchant. The update appeared on the National Futures Association website on 23 March. This status opens a pathway for Kalshi to offer capital-efficient trading structures, though margin trading is not yet […]

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Washington Files Lawsuit Against Kalshi For Illegal Gambling Operations

Washington has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, arguing that its prediction market platform constitutes illegal online gambling under state law. The complaint was submitted in King County Superior Court by the Washington State Attorney General’s Office. Authorities claim the platform violates both the state’s Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act. Hence, the state seeks to […]

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Nevada Court Stops Coinbase Prediction Markets amid Legal Fight

Key Points A Nevada court issued a preliminary injunction on March 26, stopping Coinbase’s prediction market operations in the state, which created sharp tension. The ruling rejects claims that federal law overrides state gambling rules, and it strengthens state authority with firm control. This decision follows action against Kalshi, and it shows a wider legal […]

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Kalshi Records $800M Surge From March Madness

Kalshi has reported more than $800 million in trading during the opening weekend of March Madness, making it a standout player. The figure nearly doubles the total volume recorded across the entire tournament period in 2025. Last year, users traded $208 million during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. The latest numbers highlight […]

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Malta Looks Into Regulatory Path For Prediction Markets

Malta is considering a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri described the vertical as a major opportunity for the country’s digital economy. The announcement was made during the inauguration of Blockchain.com’s new offices in Malta. Schembri said: “We are actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid […]

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Kalshi and Polymarket leaders Support new VC Fund For Prediction Markets

Leaders from Kalshi and Polymarket have come together to support a new venture capital firm targeting the event contract economy, in a rare collaboration. The fund, 5c(c) Capital, was unveiled this week with backing from Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. According to its website: “5c(c) aims to allocate capital and provide […]

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Polymarket Tightens Insider Trading Rules In Policy Shift

Polymarket has introduced a new set of market integrity rules, a clear shift in its approach to insider trading. The updates are reflected in its Terms of Use and the Polymarket US Rulebook, expanding the scope of prohibited conduct while strengthening compliance systems. The move follows recent regulatory developments from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. […]

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