India’s Sudden Polymarket Block Signals Bigger Betting Crackdown

Key Points

• India has moved to cut off access to Polymarket after the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology directed action against prediction market platforms classified as banned online money gaming services under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025.
• Authorities are also expected to block Kalshi soon, while VPN providers have received warnings that helping users reach restricted betting platforms may trigger legal action under Section 69A of the Information Technology Act.
• The government’s response signals a broader shift in policy. Platforms once treated as skill-based gaming services now face tougher oversight as officials raise concerns around addiction, financial damage, money laundering, and social risks linked to online wagering involving real money.

For months, prediction markets spread across India without facing much resistance from regulators. Users poured money into wagers linked to IPL games, world politics, OpenAI’s IPO chances, and even a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Many participants believed these platforms operated inside a legal space that authorities would continue to ignore. That belief has started collapsing at speed. Indian officials have already moved against platforms such as Polymarket, while Kalshi could face similar restrictions within days. What seemed like a narrow action against online betting has now opened into something much wider. The government’s response has started reaching digital enforcement systems, VPN access, speculative trading activity, and the larger framework supporting India’s online gaming industry. A trend once viewed as part of internet culture has suddenly turned into a serious regulatory battle.

A Rapidly Expanding Market Runs into Resistance

Users across India recently opened Polymarket only to face a blunt message on their screens: “This site can’t be reached. Check if there is a typo in polymarket.com.” Reloading the website did not change the outcome.

The disruption arrived soon after India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, known widely as MeitY, sent an advisory to VPN providers on April 25. Officials stated that users in India were still reaching “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms” despite restrictions already in place across the country.

Authorities later directed internet service providers to restrict access to identified prediction market platforms, and Polymarket appeared among the services selected for enforcement. Reports quoting unnamed ministry officials claimed a formal blocking order had already reached Polymarket, while Kalshi could receive similar treatment as early as Friday.

Even with tighter restrictions emerging, access still depended on the internet provider users relied on. During the period when reports surfaced, both Polymarket and Kalshi continued allowing users from India to open accounts and trade on their platforms. Those uneven restrictions exposed another layer beneath the crackdown. Enforcement efforts had started accelerating faster than technical systems could completely control access.

Why Prediction Markets Draw Massive Attention?

Prediction markets evolved in a way that separated them from traditional betting applications, and that difference became one of the main reasons behind their rise in India. Rather than operating like ordinary gambling platforms, these services allowed users to place real-money bets on future events. Politics, sports, economics, technology, and global conflicts all became part of the activity. In practice, users were purchasing probabilities tied to real-world outcomes.

Interest around these platforms climbed sharply during the 2024 US presidential election. Traders used prediction markets not only for speculation but also to protect themselves against political outcomes. Activity later picked up again through sports events and technology-focused developments.

At the time this report emerged, Polymarket carried markets linked to questions such as “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?” and “OpenAI IPO by…?” Cricket activity connected to the IPL also attracted heavy participation from users.

One IPL fixture between Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bengaluru on May 7 reportedly produced nearly $27.7 million, equal to around Rs 266 crore, in combined trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi. The precise share connected to Indian users remained uncertain, yet the scale showed how quickly speculative event trading had entered public attention.

Other platforms working in prediction and opinion-based trading include Bitclout, Hedgehog, and PlotX. Many users found these platforms attractive because of the way they presented participation. Unlike casino-style betting, prediction markets framed activity around data, public mood, trends, and probability analysis. That mental distinction carried weight for users. Many participants viewed the experience as something closer to trading than gambling. Indian regulators, however, do not seem willing to recognise that difference.

A New Law Reshaped the Regulatory Landscape

Pressure behind the crackdown increased after Parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, known widely as PROGA, in August 2025.

The legislation widened the definition of prohibited online money gaming activities in a major way. Formats that once operated under legal protection as skill-based games, including poker, rummy, and fantasy cricket, lost much of that protection after the revised framework came into effect.

Platforms including RummyCircle, Adda52, and Dream11 entered a much broader regulatory review where the use of real money itself drew stronger scrutiny, regardless of arguments tied to skill-based participation.

Reports indicated that several domestic operators pulled out of affected categories after the law became active. That transition exposed a change in the government’s thinking. Regulators no longer focused only on whether a platform involved skill-based participation. Attention increasingly shifted toward financial and behavioural effects linked to real-money activity.

Government officials repeatedly linked online gambling and speculative gaming systems to addiction, financial pressure, money laundering risks, and suicides. Within that framework, prediction markets stopped being treated as experimental financial products and instead fell into the category of prohibited money gaming platforms.

VPN Providers Face Growing Pressure

One of the biggest parts of the crackdown no longer centres only on prediction market operators.

MeitY warned VPN providers that continued access to blocked prediction market platforms could expose them to “consequential legal action.” Officials specifically pointed toward Polymarket and similar services they believed should already have become inaccessible through Indian internet providers.

That warning reshaped the enforcement environment almost immediately. For years, many internet restrictions across India remained partly avoidable through VPN services and DNS modifications. Reports suggested users inside Polymarket’s official Discord server had already started exchanging methods for bypassing restrictions through DNS changes.

Now regulators appear determined to shut those gaps down as well.

Reports suggested authorities could use Section 69A of the Information Technology Act alongside the new gaming legislation. Section 69A gives the central government power to block access to websites, applications, and social media platforms. India previously used the same provision during the TikTok ban.

The penalties linked to non-compliance carry serious weight. Intermediaries that fail to follow directions issued under Section 69A can face prison terms of up to seven years along with financial penalties. That escalation pushed pressure far beyond gaming operators themselves. VPN companies, internet intermediaries, and infrastructure providers now face direct compliance responsibilities as enforcement grows wider.

Platforms Begin Responding as Pressure Builds

As scrutiny intensified, platform operators started addressing the situation in public statements.

Kalshi legal counsel Valeria Vouterakou told Bloomberg last week, “We will comply with the government’s requests should they make them.”

Polymarket also said it was “committed to complying with applicable laws and regulations across all jurisdictions in which it operates” and added that the company maintained and updated geo-blocking measures in regions where its services were restricted.

Before the latest enforcement effort began, India did not appear on Polymarket’s list of restricted countries. That detail explains why participation from India continued even as regulatory concerns became stronger. A gap remained between policy decisions and technical enforcement, which allowed users to continue accessing platforms that authorities already viewed as prohibited.

That gap now seems to be closing at speed.

Expert Insight: The Crackdown May Signal a Larger Shift

The immediate focus still rests on prediction markets, yet the implications now stretch far beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.

Operators across India’s online gaming and speculative trading sectors now face a regulatory system that places a stronger focus on outcome-based risk assessment instead of older arguments around skill and chance. Compliance strategies may need complete restructuring because platforms can no longer rely only on product design if regulators believe real-money participation creates broader consumer harm.

Global operators entering India now face a much tougher operating environment. Stronger geo-blocking systems, local compliance teams, transaction monitoring structures, and clearer legal positioning may become necessary before expanding services connected to speculation or event-based trading.

Domestic gaming companies are dealing with pressure from another direction. Rising compliance costs and growing legal uncertainty could push for stronger consolidation across the industry, especially among smaller operators. Platforms that relied on rapid expansion through real-money engagement may now need to rethink monetisation strategies entirely.

VPN providers and internet intermediaries are also being pulled deeper into enforcement responsibilities. The government’s readiness to extend pressure beyond primary platforms signals a wider digital governance strategy where infrastructure participants themselves may increasingly carry liability for regulatory violations.

The biggest beneficiaries could eventually become regulated domestic platforms capable of adapting quickly to India’s changing legal structure. Offshore operators that depended on regulatory uncertainty may face the heaviest losses, along with users who viewed prediction markets as alternative financial tools instead of gambling products.

Attention has now shifted toward the next move from the authorities. Stakeholders across gaming, fintech, crypto-linked markets, and digital trading platforms are watching closely to see whether India treats prediction markets as a standalone regulatory issue or as the beginning of a much broader crackdown on speculative digital participation.