DraftKings Jumps as Prediction Markets Enter the Mainstream

Key Points

• DraftKings shares rose as much as 10% intraday on 9 June, with annualised prediction markets volume reaching $3.1bn in May, up 34% month-on-month.
• The stock move arrives against a backdrop of bipartisan Senate legislation, a co-founder publicly branding rivals “niche as f***”, and a $22bn-valued Kalshi accused of corporate espionage by Polymarket.
• DraftKings CEO Jason Robins has named the 2026 FIFA World Cup a “huge focal point for customer acquisition,” with a proprietary exchange and new combos product set to launch ahead of the tournament.

In the session of trading on 9 June 2026, DraftKings gained as much as 10 per cent to reach $27.28, which was its highest single-session gain since April 2025, when its stock price increased by 12.39 per cent. Its gains were trimmed before the close, but it still closed at 7.59 per cent, with the stock ending at $26.66. Investors were lured into DraftKings not because of any deal announced nor a quarterly earnings surprise. Rather, they were attracted by volume numbers on an event prediction market platform introduced by DraftKings back in December 2025.

What the Numbers Actually Said?

The annualised volume of the total volume for the predictions market on DraftKings was reported at $3.1 billion for the month of May, a 34% increase from April. The consumer volume stood at $1.3 billion for the month of May, marking a 24% increase from April. DraftKings attributed the improvements in the app that led to an improved experience for users with the platform.

The Q1 shareholder letter put the cost picture plainly. Once Predictions moved into the main app, something shifted fast. “Predictions is now live in our flagship app, and as a result, our Predictions customer acquisition cost declined more than 80% in April,” Robins wrote. That figure, an 80%-plus drop in a single month, is not the kind of number companies manage toward. It is the kind that happens when distribution is already there and you stop building around it. Robins, for his part, has not been shy about what comes next: “We’re not waiting for the game to come to us with DraftKings Predictions, we’re playing offence.”

A Space That Moves Fast and Plays Rough

The May volume data did not arrive in a vacuum. The prediction markets sector it dropped into has spent 2026 getting noisier, messier, and harder to read from the outside. One needs to rewind a couple of months to grasp the foundation on which DraftKings is laying its plans.

In March 2026, both DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment saw their shares surge 7% within a day after US Senators began drawing up bills that would ban sports betting on prediction marketplaces. Senator Adam Schiff left no ambiguity about his stand. “The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and promoting their growth,” he said, pressing Congress to shut down what he called a backdoor that “violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty and offers no public revenue.” Co-sponsor Senator John Curtis came at it from a different angle: “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators.” Together, the two senators introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, the first bill of its kind to draw bipartisan Senate support.

The Rivals DraftKings Is Chasing, and the War Between Them

While DraftKings was quietly building volume, the two platforms it was chasing were busy tearing into each other. According to the New York Post, Polymarket had put together an internal dossier, labelled “copycat,” logging roughly a dozen cases where it believed Kalshi had lifted its ideas, jumped its product launches, and deliberately undercut its events. One Polymarket executive told the Post the file covered “only one tenth” of what the company had clocked.

One theory inside Polymarket pointed to Paradigm, the venture capital firm backing Kalshi, which leases office space directly across the street from Polymarket’s New York headquarters, reportedly with a clear sightline to employee screens. Polymarket responded by tinting its windows. Kalshi called the whole thing “sad and borderline delusional.” Both companies are sitting on valuations that reflect how seriously the money is taking this sector: Polymarket is pushing toward $15bn, and Kalshi was recently marked at $22bn.

All that capital has not stopped people inside the DraftKings orbit from saying out loud what others in the industry were only whispering. In May, co-founder Matt Kalish went on X and said what he thought, without a filter. “Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to delivering the calibre of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all),” he wrote. The prediction market space, as far as Kalish was concerned, was not ready for a general audience. Not even close.

He saved his sharpest words for Kalshi. “Yet there is one company that is intent on screaming from the mountaintops like they have some hot shit in sports today and that is Kalshi. Driven by ego and pressure from raising billions, now push crazy comms while booking 1/500th the risk of DK/FD.” Retail users, he warned, were being “decimated by MM and pro gamblers, losing 97% in sports markets.” Then came the line that travelled furthest: “Normal ppl on Kalshi have no clue the ‘micro mechanics of predication markets’ or whatever the fuck, getting orders snap dumped to pro market makers from Wall Street at 40% the value then condescended by the exchange for being noob. This product today is niche as fuck.”

Sportico had already run the numbers and found what Kalish was describing written into the data. Retail bettors lost $116.8m on Kalshi’s parlay-style combos across the first four months of 2026. At least $35m of that went straight to the exchange in fees. For every $100 placed, users walked away $15 lighter.

The World Cup Looms Over Everything

Every operator in this space is pointing at the same date on the calendar. The 2026 FIFA World Cup, 48 teams, 104 matches, three countries, is the kind of event that reshapes a year. Flutter CEO Peter Jackson called it “the biggest betting opportunity we’ll have ever seen.” Robins described it as “a huge focal point for customer acquisition.” Both men are talking about a land grab, but there is something neither one has said directly: this is the first time a tournament of this size is playing out while Kalshi and Polymarket are both live, well-funded, and operating in states where traditional sports betting cannot legally touch a customer.

Trades on the World Cup winner have already crossed $1.5bn on Polymarket alone, before a ball has been kicked. DraftKings is not sitting still. Its proprietary exchange and combo product are both set to go live ahead of the tournament, and Robins made his intention clear in the Q1 letter: “Our roadmap is clear, our execution is real, and we intend to establish a leadership position in Sports Predictions by year-end.”

The books boost confidence. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $1.65bn, up 16.8% on the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 63.7% to $167.9m. Net profit landed at $21.1m, against a $33.9m loss in Q1 2025. Twelve months ago the company was losing money. Now it is profitable, growing, and moving into new ground with costs falling and volumes rising.

Expert Analysis

The March legislative news gave DraftKings a tailwind it did not earn. The June volume release gave it something harder to take away: proof that the product is working. An 80%-plus drop in customer acquisition costs after a single integration move is not a quarterly anomaly; it is a structural advantage. DraftKings does not need to outspend Kalshi for prediction market users. It already has them in the app. That is precisely the flaw Kalish was describing when he talked about Kalshi burning money to acquire customers who then get picked apart by professional traders.

The $116.8m retail loss figure from Sportico is not just a data point; it is the kind of number that finds its way into a Senate committee room. Schiff and Curtis already have their bill. That retail loss data gives it teeth. If the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act moves forward, DraftKings’ regulated, integrated structure stops being a competitive advantage and starts being the only viable model. The World Cup will tell us whether May was a turning point or a spike tied to basketball. The real test comes in July, once the NBA Finals are gone and the combo product is live. If consumer volume holds, the super app thesis stops being a slide deck and starts being a business.