President Trump Criticises Rise Of Prediction Markets On Global Conflict

Donald Trump has raised concerns about the growth of prediction markets on geopolitical events, describing the current environment as increasingly speculative. Speaking to reporters, he questioned the idea of wagering on global developments, even as these platforms gain traction.

“Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino, and you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe, in every place doing these betting things,” he said. “I was never much in favour of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”

Trump linked the expansion of prediction markets to broader changes in how political and military events are perceived. He said: “Now, I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff, but they have all these different sites; they have predictive markets. It’s a crazy world. It’s a much different world than it was.”

Insider trading case highlights regulatory risk

According to CNBC reports, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant, was arrested for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket limked to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

The US Department of Justice said Van Dyke was involved in planning “Operation Absolute Resolve,” which led to Maduro’s arrest in January. Prosecutors allege he placed wagers totalling around $33,000 before the operation, generating nearly $410,000 in profit.

Authorities claim the bets were based on non-public knowledge of military plans. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also filed civil charges, accusing him of breaching the Commodity Exchange Act.

“I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law,” said CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”

CFTC Director of Enforcement, David Miller added: “All members of the government, including service members, owe a duty of trust and confidentiality to the government and the American people.”

Market activity driven by political uncertainty

Prediction market activity has grown on top platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi due to Trump’s political statements and decisions.

During periods of tension involving Iran earlier in the year, hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered on potential outcomes, including military intervention and diplomatic resolution. 

According to experts, political uncertainty has created a new category of speculative trading. However, the scope of these markets has expanded beyond conflict scenarios. Users are now trading contracts tied to economic indicators, policy decisions and entertainment outcomes. 

Trump-linked ventures signal industry expansion

The sector’s growth has also attracted interest from the Trump family. Reports indicate that Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a platform called Truth Predict, to enter the prediction market space.

At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. has taken advisory and investment roles in companies including Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have benefited from increased activity.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are treated as financial instruments under US law, placing them under CFTC oversight rather than state-level gambling regulators. This distinction has led to ongoing legal disputes, with several states arguing that certain contracts resemble unlicensed betting products.

Industry groups such as the American Gaming Association have also raised concerns, stating that prediction markets compete with licensed operators without adhering to the same regulatory framework.

Despite criticism, the sector keeps expanding, with trading volumes reaching billions of dollars weekly and increasing interest from investors and technology firms.

Trump has expressed concerns over the increased involvement of geopolitical conflicts in prediction markets. The industry’s growth has inspired the Trump family to create a platform while the president sits on the boards of top platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.