Key Points
- The BGC says a 40% standard MGD rate would cancel or shrink more than £50m of planned casino projects.
- Genting shut its Coventry casino and says 13 of its 32 UK venues could turn unprofitable at 40%.
- Industry modelling and the Social Market Foundation reach opposite verdicts on what the same rate would raise.
A year and four months ago, the Government amended the law to get the private capital in the UK casinos. Now, a proposed hike in taxes that hasn’t been verified yet is likely to drive some of the private capital out of British gambling venues. As the Betting and Gaming Council reported on 2 October, doubling the machine games duty rate will cost more than £50 million in projects that had been planned. The report came a day after Genting revealed the intention to close its casino in Coventry.
£200m of Plans Waiting on One Decision
BGC has used the plans put forward by the top four casino operators in Britain to calculate the figures. These plans amount to more than £200m worth of spending at venues throughout the country, with £8m allocated for Bristol and £5m each for Cardiff and Bournemouth.
These funds have been created due to changes in the casino licensing rules that came into force on 22 July 2025. The converted casinos meeting certain size requirements can now operate up to 80 gaming machines and betting facilities.
BGC chief executive Grainne Hurst argued that the stakes reach well beyond the gaming floor. “These are not just investments in casinos,” she said. “They are investments in Britain’s towns and cities.”
Plans, though, are not contracts. Every one of those projects now waits on a single rate decision.
What Machine Games Duty Is and What Could Change?
Machine Games Duty is not one flat tax. It has three rates linked to the cost of play.
Machines costing 20p or less to play pay 5%, while those costing 21p to £5 pay the standard 20%. Anything costing more than £5 pays 25%. Reports suggest the scenario under Treasury review would double all three bands, taking the standard rate to 40%.
The Internet gaming industry is already accustomed to its own growth. The Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% in April 2026, while a 25% remote gaming rate was set in April 2027. As machine rates remained untouched during the last Budget, land-based casinos now feel vulnerable.
Genting’s Coventry Closure Shows the Pressure Already Exists
Genting’s Coventry casino opened its doors in 2012 and had a workforce of 51 people. The company cited years of increasing labour costs, business rates, energy charges and gambling duties as having made the venture unsustainable.
What is notable here is the fact that no new duty caused the closure. Existing costs did the job, and that’s precisely what makes operators worried about a doubling of the rate for larger estates.
Paul Willcock, the CEO of Genting Casinos UK, told NEXT.io that 13 out of the company’s 32 UK casinos would become unsustainable at 40%. And here was his straightforward reasoning: “You can’t tax a casino that has closed.”
In an article for City A.M., Willcock calculated the additional cost of a 40% levy at about £16m annually. According to him, 850 jobs at venues and 50 support jobs would become threatened. The same article mentions the £50m Trocadero project in Piccadilly, with an estimated number of 350-400 jobs. As of yet, Genting hasn’t revealed the 13 threatened sites; therefore, we can’t say whether Trocadero is one of them.
But Genting is not the only company that is ringing the alarm bell. According to The Guardian, Rank Group, which owns Grosvenor Casinos and Mecca Bingo, has decided to close a third of its clubs, making 2,000 people jobless. In the same report, Simon Thomas, the CEO of Hippodrome Casino, revealed that a completely approved £6m expansion on the roof of their casino had been scrapped already.
Two Models, Two Opposite Answers
The EY modelling carried out for BGC puts 34 casinos at risk on the basis of a 40% rate increase. In addition, 1,500 betting shops and up to 16,000 jobs are at stake, and the Treasury may lose £124m as a result of the move. The rationale behind this conclusion is obvious: closed businesses do not pay any duty, hence an increased duty rate is applied to a smaller base.
However, a study conducted by the Social Market Foundation in June concludes just the opposite. The think tank believes that the tax increase should be restricted to Category B machines so that pubs would not be affected. According to the study, the doubling of the rate will produce between £275m and £458m per year.
In both cases, figures are based on the assumptions about the response of operators and their clients. This is neither a Treasury projection nor an estimate by the BGC. The Guardian stresses how difficult it is to distinguish between the two factors.
What HMRC’s First Numbers Show?
Provisional HMRC figures, reported by SBC News, show Remote Gaming Duty receipts of £376m for April to June 2026. That is 22% higher than the same quarter of 2025, despite industry warnings that higher rates shrink receipts.
Machine Games Duty brought in £162m over the same period, up 5% on a year earlier. One quarter of online data cannot predict how physical venues would respond to their own rise. Even so, the figures hand ministers a ready counter to the industry’s loudest argument.
The Black-Market Claim Deserves a Closer Look
The BGC frequently cites H2 Gambling Capital research regarding offshore gambling. The SMF argues that illegal in-person gambling stays rare, because premises are fixed, licensed twice and easy for enforcers to find. Genting, for its part, says organised crime is already opening illegal casinos on high streets. Both claims deserve proper evidence before the Budget treats either as settled.
Expert Analysis: A Doubled Rate Could Reward the Wrong Venues
We think the investment row hides a harder question. If MGD doubles, which venues close, and where do their machines go?
A Racing Post commentary makes a point that deserves more attention. The duty taxes the machine, not the building around it. After the 2019 stake cut, betting shops fell from about 8,300 to 5,617. Over a similar stretch, adult gaming centre takings nearly doubled, from £390m to £761m.
The pattern may already be repeating. The Guardian reports that Merkur, a major arcade operator, has offered to buy some of the 132 shops Betfred put up for sale. Arcades carry lower overheads and lighter rules than casinos, and they live almost entirely on machine income.
Our view is uncomfortable for both sides. A flat doubling could close heavily supervised casinos and betting shops while cheaper arcades hold on to the machines. If the goal is less harm on the high street, that outcome works against it. The SMF’s Category B plan is more targeted, yet it would still hit arcades hardest, since they host 42% of Britain’s machines.
Nobody in this fight has shown the full picture. Ministers should publish their own closure estimates before 28 October, because that number decides whether this trade is worth making at all.
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