Wagering on the 2026 NFL season is expected to reach about $40 billion across regulated sportsbooks and prediction markets, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming research cited by CNBC.
Regulated sportsbooks are forecast to handle roughly $31.7 billion, almost four in every five dollars wagered and about 8 per cent more than last year. Sports-event contracts are projected to account for the equivalent of $8.4 billion, giving prediction markets around 21 per cent of the combined total.
Prediction Markets Reach States Where Sportsbooks Remain Restricted
EKG linked much of the growth to prediction platforms’ access to states where commercial sportsbooks remain restricted. Sports contracts are available in California, Texas and Georgia, where sports betting is not authorised, and in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock Sportsbook has online wagering exclusivity.
Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, said the platforms were expanding the wider market rather than immediately taking business from sportsbooks. “Prediction markets are growing the overall market, at least for now,” Grove said. “We’ll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets by the time we get to the Super Bowl.”
Football contract volume across selected exchanges reached 2.94 billion between 1 and 14 September, almost four times the comparable 2025 level. Polymarket recorded about 755,000 US app downloads during NFL kickoff week, ahead of Kalshi’s 602,000. The comparison excluded Robinhood and Coinbase because their downloads are not limited to prediction markets.
Polymarket reportedly reached $21 billion after a funding round led by 1789 Capital, backed by Donald Trump Jr., while Kalshi secured a reported $22 billion valuation earlier in 2026. The company has also expanded sports partnerships with Genius Sports, Sportradar, leagues, teams and NBA star LeBron James.
Traditional Sportsbooks Retain Important Product And Revenue Advantages
Traditional sportsbooks still offer more developed betting products, loyalty programmes and deeper wagering menus. Parlays are expected to represent more than 40% of the regulated NFL handle and potentially about 75 per cent of sportsbook revenue because of their higher margins.
Prediction operators are adopting similar products. Piper Sandler research cited by CNBC found that combination contracts, the sector’s version of parlays, now account for most Kalshi volume. Across eight monitored exchanges on the latest reporting day, volume reached about $2.48 billion. Kalshi contributed roughly $1.93 billion and Polymarket about $403.6 million.
Newer platforms are also gaining ground. Novig generated an estimated $43 million, up 77% month-on-month, while Underdog reached about $26.5 million, an 80 per cent increase. Novig’s national campaign featuring actress and reported shareholder Sydney Sweeney drew attention and criticism. Liquidity is spreading beyond the two market leaders.
Regulatory Conflict Over Sports Event Contracts Intensifies
The American Gaming Association forecast $29.5 billion in legal NFL sportsbook handle, little changed from $29.4 billion last year, and argues that prediction markets are slowing conventional sportsbook growth.
Its public statement said: “The AGA estimates $29.5B will be bet on the 2026 NFL season through commercial sportsbooks. That indicates no growth from last year as so-called “prediction markets” offering sports bets are exploding while paying no state gaming taxes.”
Authorities in about 20 states are challenging sports-event contracts from Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood, arguing that they resemble sports betting and should follow state gambling laws. The operators maintain that the products are financial contracts supervised federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The dispute creates competing measures of the NFL market. Sportsbook forecasts capture activity regulated and taxed by states, while prediction-market estimates include contracts offered through federal oversight. Therefore, the regulators’ classification of those contracts will affect market share and each model’s commercial room.
Prediction markets are no longer a peripheral NFL product in 2026. Their nationwide reach gives them a distribution advantage, but the increased similarity and competition with sportsbook-style products might result in more state-level regulatory challenges.
Share
3 views
