The 2026 NFL season is expected to generate around $40 billion in wagering activity across regulated sportsbooks and prediction markets, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming research cited by CNBC.
Regulated sportsbooks are projected to account for $31.7 billion of NFL betting handle, representing almost four out of every five dollars wagered and an increase of about 8 per cent on last season.
Prediction markets are expected to generate the equivalent of $8.4 billion in NFL wagering activity, giving sports-event contracts approximately 21 per cent of the combined market.
Prediction markets gain access to states without legal sportsbooks
EKG attributes much of the growth to prediction market platforms operating in states where commercial sports betting remains unavailable or restricted.
Sports-related contracts are available in California, Texas and Georgia, where conventional online sports betting is not authorised. They are also offered in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock Sportsbook holds exclusivity over online wagering.
Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, said prediction markets are currently expanding the overall market rather than immediately replacing sportsbook activity.
“Prediction markets are growing the overall market, at least for now,” Grove said. “We’ll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets by the time we get to the Super Bowl.”
Football contract volume on selected prediction market exchanges reached 2.94 billion contracts between 1 and 14 September, nearly four times the equivalent period in 2025.
Polymarket and Kalshi continue to build scale
Polymarket recorded about 755,000 US app downloads during NFL kickoff week, ahead of Kalshi’s 602,000, according to CNBC. The comparison excludes broader trading apps including Robinhood and Coinbase.
Both companies have also secured major valuations. Polymarket reached a reported $21 billion valuation following a funding round led by Donald Trump Jr.-backed 1789 Capital, while Kalshi secured a reported $22 billion valuation earlier this year.
Polymarket has strengthened relationships with Genius Sports and Sportradar, alongside agreements with sports leagues and teams. It also announced a partnership with NBA player LeBron James.
Sportsbooks retain product and customer advantages
Traditional sportsbooks still hold important advantages through deeper betting menus, established loyalty programmes and more sophisticated products.
Parlays remain particularly valuable. EKG expects them to account for more than 40 per cent of regulated NFL betting handle and potentially about 75 per cent of sportsbook revenue because of higher margins.
Prediction platforms are moving towards similar products. Piper Sandler research cited by CNBC found that combination contracts, effectively prediction-market versions of parlays, now make up most of Kalshi’s trading volume.
Novig and Underdog have also reported strong growth. Piper Sandler estimated Novig’s volume at $43 million, up 77 per cent month on month, while Underdog generated $26.5 million, an 80 per cent increase.
Prediction markets are no longer operating as a marginal alternative to sportsbooks. Their ability to reach states without regulated sports betting is creating new demand, but the next phase will bring direct competition as platforms build combination products, partnerships and stronger consumer brands.
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