Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner Says the Doom Narrative Is Wrong – Can the Licensing Data Back Him Up?

Key Points

• The Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner, Andrew Lyman, has come out against the image of decline, citing examples of licensing that is ongoing despite the implementation of the Gambling Act 2025.
• There are layoffs by companies such as Bet365, Lottoland, etc., but for different reasons including changes in UK tax laws, decisions in German courts, etc., although Lyman classifies these layoffs as being related to AI efficiencies.
• A dedicated prediction market regulatory framework came into force in July 2026, with one operator licensed, one holding approval in principle, and a third expected shortly.

The Gibraltar gambling industry had been producing a constant string of disturbing news stories throughout most of 2026. Bet365 announced its intention to lay off around 340 staff, with 40 people between the company’s Gibraltar and Malta offices. Lottoland was consulting 270 staff in Gibraltar about redundancy packages. And then there was Betfred and William Hill laying off their British retail staff. Look at those headlines in order and Gibraltar is looking like a territory which is slipping control of the companies which created it.

Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner, has read those same headlines, and he disagrees with what they imply.

Lyman Fires Back at the Doomsayers

Writing on LinkedIn, Lyman was pointed: “Those that write off Gibraltar as a tier 1 gambling hub, and some of the doomsayers are within the jurisdiction, are wrong. The model is under pressure, but far from spent.” He followed that statement to NEXT.io with a clarification: “My understanding is that companies are not looking to significantly downsize their Gibraltar footprint if it can be avoided.”

He is not arguing the cuts are painless. Lyman offered his “heartfelt sympathies” to workers affected. His point is more specific: closing headcount is not the same as abandoning a jurisdiction, and he argues that collapsing those two things into one narrative is exactly what is distorting the picture.

What Is Actually Driving the Redundancies, and Why the Causes Differ?

The layoff announcements share surface similarities but have distinct underlying causes. Entain and Flutter’s Paddy Power brand are reviewing hundreds of roles, and Betfred and William Hill have already begun closures. Bet365 was explicit that its Stoke-based redundancies were linked to a highly competitive trading environment combined with increased regulatory and tax costs, particularly in the UK.

Lottoland’s situation is different. Its Gibraltar consultation was more directly connected to significant regulatory and commercial developments, including a CJEU ruling in April 2026 under Case C-440/23 concerning online gambling liabilities in the German market, rather than a verdict on Gibraltar’s attractiveness as a base.

Lyman’s framing covers all of it with one argument. Companies have been pushed, in his words, to “be leaner and meaner over cost and efficiency, and to accelerate the implementation of AI.” Some operators, he noted, have already replaced much of their customer service function with chatbot systems, reaching a point where “a lot less of their customer engagement is by way of person-to-person chat. It’s now AI-to-person chat.” That interpretation belongs to Lyman; the individual companies have each pointed to different pressures. What is consistent across the board is the direction: fewer people, lower overheads, faster automation.

A New Gambling Act and a Licensing Uptick

What competitors have largely missed is the connection between Gibraltar’s Gambling Act 2025 and the licensing activity building in parallel. The Act restructured how B2B licences are classified, and that reclassification has directly generated three to four new B2C licence applications currently being processed. Beyond that, Lyman told NEXT.io that Gibraltar is preparing to licence “an initial tranche of six or seven marketing-only companies.”

Lyman’s position is that none of this looks like a jurisdiction operators are quietly exiting. Whether those incoming applications represent genuinely new entrants or existing businesses restructuring under the new licensing categories is a question the data does not yet fully resolve, but applications are being processed at a point when the layoff narrative is loudest. Lyman describes the Gambling Act transition as having “created renewed interest in Gibraltar, as opposed to driving operators out because they feel they’re being over-regulated.”

Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Calculation

The clearest expression of the jurisdiction’s direction is the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, which came into force on 13 July. The framework is the first dedicated regulatory regime for prediction markets globally, carving the product out from both gambling and financial services as a distinct legal category. FIFA-partnered ADI Predictstreet already holds a live B2C licence issued in March 2026 under the previous framework. Wire Markets Ltd, the Gibraltar subsidiary of WagerWire, received approval in principle in June and is targeting activation around the start of the 2026 NFL season. A third significant prediction market operator is expected to be licensed shortly, Lyman confirmed, though no name has been made public.

Alongside that, Midnite’s Gibraltar gambling licence, signed by Minister Feetham in September 2026 after direct ministerial outreach, adds another incoming operator to a period already defined by departures. Minister Nigel Feetham KC MP, who championed the prediction market framework after identifying what he called a commercial opportunity during a Hong Kong visit earlier in 2026, has been clear about the ambition: “My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.”

Expert Analysis: Is the Optimism Earned, or Is It Just the Commissioner’s Job?

We should be honest about what Andrew Lyman is and what he is not. A gambling commissioner publicly defending their jurisdiction is not a disinterested analyst. Reassurance is part of the role, and that deserves some weight when reading his statements.

And yet the specific evidence he points to is verifiable. One licensed prediction market operator. One approval in principle. A third expected. New B2C applications being processed. Midnite signing on through direct government engagement. These are not rhetorical flourishes; they are documented licensing events. The more interesting and unresolved question is whether this incoming category of business, principally smaller-scale prediction market operators and restructured B2C players, carries enough economic weight to replace what Gibraltar is losing in large-operator headcount. Lyman has not answered that, and it is not clear anyone can yet. What we can say is that a jurisdiction actively building new legal categories, processing incoming applications, and signing new operators in its most difficult recent month is not exhibiting the behaviour of one in terminal decline. That may not be the full story, but it is a material part of it that the layoff headlines have consistently missed.