European Lotteries (EL), the Brussels-based body representing national lotteries across Europe, has called for a coordinated regulatory approach as prediction markets expand across the region.
The organisation said prediction markets should operate within Europe’s existing regulatory architecture rather than developing around it.
EL Warns Against Regulatory Gaps And Arbitrage
EL said prediction markets create important questions at the intersection of financial services and gambling regulation because users can take positions on elections, sports matches and other future events.
It called for a “coherent regulatory approach that ensures that new and emerging products do not create gaps or arbitrage which would weaken existing consumer safeguards”.
The organisation said regulatory treatment should be based on the legal characteristics, economic substance and risks of each product, rather than the language used to market it or the technology through which it is offered.
Event contracts that qualify as financial instruments under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive would remain subject to financial services rules. Where contracts do not meet that definition, their treatment would depend on the relevant national gambling framework.
EL also stressed that classification as a financial instrument does not automatically exempt a product from national gambling legislation.
European Markets Continue Adopting Different Approaches
Although gambling regulation remains a national responsibility, EL said coordination between authorities is increasingly important because consumer protection standards and public policy objectives differ across Europe.
EL secretary general Piet Van Baeveghem said the principle was “simple”: activities that “present similar risks should be subject to similar safeguards”.
Gibraltar has introduced a dedicated prediction market framework through its 2025 Gambling Act. Malta is considering its own rules, while the Malta Gaming Authority has said some products may already fall within existing licence categories depending on their structure.
Ireland expects operators to hold the appropriate licence to offer prediction market betting services. France, Italy, Portugal and Belgium have restricted or blocked certain prediction market platforms, including Polymarket.
European Lotteries is pushing for technology-neutral regulation that focuses on what prediction market products do rather than how operators describe them. A coordinated framework could reduce uncertainty for businesses and prevent consumers from receiving different protections for products with similar risks.
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