Gibraltar Launches World’s First Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulation

Key Points

• Gibraltar published the world’s first standalone prediction markets regulatory framework on 13 July 2026, under the Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025.
• Two operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, have already received licences under the new regime.
• Nine European gambling regulators launched a coordinated crackdown on unlicensed prediction market operators in June 2026, placing Gibraltar at direct odds with continental enforcement trends.

Gibraltar Becomes First Jurisdiction to Regulate Prediction Markets as a Standalone Category

This feat is yet to be achieved anywhere else in the world. On 13th July 2026, Gibraltar released the regulatory regime for its prediction markets through the Gibraltar Gazette from the Ministry for Justice, Trade & Industry through its minister Nigel Feetham. These regulations make up part of the new Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025 where prediction market activities are considered as a unique statutory undertaking with its own authorisations and operations.

The 24-page document sets out an activity-based and risk-based approach to regulating the sector, covering market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, governance, operational resilience and objective settlement. An independent supervisory panel has been established specifically to oversee implementation, drawing on experience in remote, technology-enabled markets and complex digital environments.

Two licences had already been granted before the framework’s formal publication, signalling that Gibraltar had been moving deliberately in this direction for months.

What the Framework Actually Requires?

Every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gibraltar Gambling Authority. Contracts need to be clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation, and consistent with the stated regulatory objectives. It is necessary that operators have their internal system protecting them from any market manipulation, insider trading, or use of confidential information.

It is within the power of the authority to limit or disallow agreements they deem not in the public interest. The categories which are exempted from being included are those related to criminal activities, deaths, terrorism, or war.

Feetham framed the framework’s publication this way: “Today, we have delivered on that commitment with the publication of a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.”

The ministry said the framework also formally recognises the informational function that prediction markets serve, specifically their role in aggregating data and facilitating price discovery, a point that distinguishes Gibraltar’s approach from regulators that classify the vertical as pure gambling.

The Two Operators Who Got There First

ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, was the first licensed operator in Gibraltar, receiving approval in March under the previous 2005 Gambling Act as a betting intermediary. That licence predated the new legislation and required authorities to process the application under existing rules rather than the incoming framework.

The second licence went to California-based WagerWire, which received approval in principle in June 2026. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger told iGB the platform was targeting a B2B and B2C prediction market launched by the NFL preseason and the start of international football in August. Geiger was direct about Gibraltar’s appeal: “I think this is the beginning of the end of the wild west and the taming of the frontier. What Gibraltar has done is they said, ‘we’re the first to roll out the new rules of the road’ and they have a history of being the gold standard. I believe that their framework will be adopted by countries that either have or don’t have their own gaming authority in a similar way that their gaming licence has been adopted.”

WagerWire, launched in 2023 as the first secondary marketplace for online sports wagering, intends to establish an international base for its prediction markets operations in Gibraltar.

Why Gibraltar Moved on This Now?

The timing connects directly to economic pressure. UK Remote Gaming Duty increases that took effect in April 2026 posed a serious threat to Gibraltar’s gaming sector, which employs around 3,500 people and generates roughly one-third of the territory’s tax revenue, with an estimated 80% of UK bets processed through servers there.

Feetham was already signalling Gibraltar’s intentions in April during a parliamentary session, where he revealed the ADI Predictstreet licence and acknowledged the sector’s growth potential. “We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar,” he said at the time.

Feetham also attended Consensus Hong Kong in February, where engagement with the broader prediction markets and crypto community appeared to accelerate the territory’s decision-making. By the time the formal framework landed in July, Gibraltar had already positioned itself as the only European jurisdiction actively building a regulatory home for the sector.

Europe Is Pulling in the Opposite Direction

The contrast with the rest of Europe could not be sharper. Nine gambling regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain coordinated a crackdown on unlicensed prediction market operators in June 2026, flagging concerns over consumer risks, the absence of mandatory betting limits and no cooling-off periods for participants.

EU financial regulator ESMA reaffirmed its position on binary outcome prediction market contracts the week before Gibraltar’s framework was published, maintaining that such contracts fall under its jurisdiction given their fixed payout structures.

Feetham acknowledged the lack of settled global consensus directly: “Internationally, there remains no settled consensus as to how prediction markets should be characterised. Different jurisdictions may view them differently. Gibraltar’s framework therefore provides an additional regulatory option by establishing a dedicated regime.”

The US regulatory picture has been similarly fractured, with financial and gambling regulators debating jurisdiction over platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket for an extended period. Despite official bans in multiple European countries, traffic and engagement data have consistently shown that users continue accessing prediction market platforms regardless.

Expert Analysis

Gibraltar has drawn a clear line between itself and the rest of Europe, but the commercial logic and the regulatory risk are both real. The territory’s framework is the first to treat prediction markets as a standalone category, which gives it a structural advantage in attracting operators that need a credible licence to approach institutional partners and global markets. WagerWire’s explicitly stated intent to use the Gibraltar licence as a springboard for international growth confirms that operators see the credential as commercially viable, not just locally useful.

The harder question is whether Gibraltar’s approach holds up once licensed operators attempt to access markets where regulators remain hostile. The European crackdown in June 2026 and ESMA’s reaffirmed stance suggest that a Gibraltar licence does not resolve the legal picture in continental Europe. ADI Predictstreet’s FIFA World Cup partnership creates an interesting pressure point, since sustained enforcement against the official prediction market of the world’s largest sporting event is politically complex.

Gibraltar has form here. Its gambling licence became a global standard over two decades, starting with UK operators migrating there in 2001, and the territory’s removal from the FATF grey list in 2024 reinforced its compliance credentials. Whether prediction markets follow a similar trajectory will depend partly on how the MiCA framework resolves the classification of outcome tokens from July 2026, and partly on whether any major operator forces a formal classification ruling in a continental EU jurisdiction.