Key Points
- Q3 revenue slumped 8.1% to €794m, and FDJ United now expects a decline in revenue for 2026, when you get down to the nitty-gritty.
- Jackpots and sports prizes are part of the reason for the fall, but let’s face it, an €62 million tax increase is going to make it hard to break even.
- The review of its online business and non-core assets is due by the end of 2027, yet UK revenue fell a whopping 24.4% and still managed to stay in the black.
FDJ United Whacks Its Year as Every Single Bit of the Business Slumps
France’s biggest lottery operator FDJ United brought in €794m in Q3, which is 8.1% less than they made the year before. Following that they dropped their 2026 targets for revenue and gross gaming revenue, citing an enormous drop. They let the cat out of the bag on the 21st of October, and come the 18th of February 2027 they’ll be publishing the full-year results. So far, nine months in, the not-so-good news is: revenue slipped 5.6% to €2,576m, and gross gaming revenue (GGR) followed suit, down 2.8% to €6,264m. Q3 was the worst of the lot: GGR fell 6.1% to €1,950m, and net gaming revenue, that’s what’s left after the taxman took his cut, dropped 7.4% to €758m.
Every single business unit reported a fall in revenue, no surprises there: French lottery and retail dropped 6.8% to €554m, and online took a hit of 10.2% to €188m. International lottery fell 15.7% to €37m, and Payment and Services slipped 6.9% to €14m. The new targets are for a low single-digit GGR decline and a mid-single-digit revenue drop, and that’s taking into account an eye-watering €70m in extra gaming taxes. The chairwoman and CEO Stéphane Pallez is pointing to the usual suspects, plus the authorities taking an increased share of the profits.
The Jackpots Didn’t Do Their Thing, Leaving the Draw Games High and Dry
It all started with EuroMillions taking a massive hit, and the figures show just how badly. Over nine months, 12 jackpots cleared the €130m mark, but last year there were 27, and only one in this year’s bunch managed to go over €200m. The finance chief, Dan Lévy, reckons that Q3 had just the one jackpot above the €130m mark, when last year it was nine.
Draw game revenues tanked, down 12.2% to €563m over nine months, and a staggering 17.3% in Q3. Instant games were a bit of a silver lining, with a tiny 0.3% increase to €935m. Online lottery GGR fell 4.6%, but would have actually grown 2.3% without those super long cycles of no winners at all. FDJ United claims its EuroMillions numbers mirror what’s happening across all ten lotteries involved. Two of this year’s three boosted jackpots were won on the very first draw, which is good as it means they never got to roll and build up even more cash. Starting in early November and early December, plans are afoot to introduce new jackpots worth a minimum of €130m.
Gamblers Have Enjoyed a Golden Week as Shops Remained Closed
In addition, bettors have done well, as the payout ratio for retail betting climbed by 400+ basis points to almost 80%. Week 37, the first week of the Champions League, is an example. In this week “the payout ratio exceeded 100% significantly”, since there were most wins for the favourites, and the top scorer has scored. The most affected by this situation have been the accumulator bets. As Lévy stated, this happened in other betting companies too. Meanwhile, retail sports betting revenues decreased by 4.5% to €297m during the nine-month period. Bet365 entered France before the World Cup, however, according to Lévy, FDJ United did not feel its presence.
The number of visits declined about 10% both in Q2 and Q3, but Lévy states that the number of FDJ players has remained steady. Concerning Q2, as Lévy said “it is a bit difficult to say”, whether heat or economic conditions have impacted the shops more. By Q3, he associates the same 10% decline with the overall economic situation.
Four Raises Make €62m Charge
As a result, gaming taxes have cost the group €62m by the end of September, €28m in France lottery and retail, and €34m online. The four raises included are: in France in July 2025 and Romania in August 2025, in the Netherlands in January 2026, and in the UK in April 2026. The tax hikes account for the fact that the revenue has decreased by 5.6%, while the GGR only by 2.8%.
As Lévy states, it is important for the shareholders to pay attention to the GGR as “the relevant indicator to understand the underlying business trends”. However, dividends are paid after paying taxes, and the target is the adjusted net profit. Thus, the forecast of more than €70m for Q4 means the extra tax payment of more than €8m.
Online Arm Splits in Two as the UK Teeters
Online betting and gaming looks pretty solid, until you take a closer look at two markets that got pulled from the table. Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) in the unit dropped just 0.8% to €1,013m, but revenue tumbled 8.2% to €619m after an extra €34m in taxes got added to the bill. Strip out the Netherlands and the UK and GGR actually ended up growing 5.7%, thanks to a bit of a boom in France and Scandinavia. But those two markets tell a completely different story, GGR plummeted 8.6% in the Netherlands and a whopping 24.4% in the UK. On the plus side, Lévy reckons the Dutch picture has started to look a bit better in recent quarters and is likely to keep getting better in Q4.
When asked if the UK is still making a profit, Lévy basically said ‘Yes, we are, we’re fine’. It’s part of a bigger review announced back in July, which is looking at online markets and some of the company’s non-core assets, mainly their Payment and Services bits. The big picture conclusions are due by the end of 2027 at the latest, probably around the time of the annual results. Lévy said the UK isn’t the major problem, it’s more about finding a balance between chipping in cash and actually making a profit.
He also admitted that online performance has been a bit of a disappointment, two years on from the Kindred deal. Part of the fix is a new single betting platform that will bring together the old FDJ and Kindred tech. That should be rolled out in most markets by the end of 2027.
New Beginnings, Cuts and Deals Are Lined Up for the Future
FDJ United are planning to give EuroMillions a bit of a revival at the start of 2027 with jackpots that could go all the way up to €300m. They’ll also be launching a new second draw with a top prize of €1m, and Lévy was keen to stress that this isn’t just some flashy new look, it’s a real overhaul. Loto will follow in October 2027 with a system that can force the jackpot to be won after 11 draws, and they’re also going to be launching a new €10 instant game. And to top it all off they’re targeting €150m in savings by the end of 2028.
On the deal-making front, Lévy said the market is getting a bit more consolidated and used the proposed Lottomatica and Cirsa combination as an example. Their boards have already given the thumbs up for a merger plan, and shareholder votes will be happening later in the month. For their part, FDJ United are looking to pick up a few small rivals where they’re not already the biggest player, but first things first they need to sort out their online business.
Expert Take: It’s Easy to Blame Bad Luck, But the Numbers Don’t Back It Up
We’ve got a bit of a problem with that “things that are just inherent to the gaming sector” line. The jackpot spike and the payout boom one week do fit that description. But the 24.4% UK GGR drop and that 10% traffic decline do not. Those are policy, market and consumer pressures, and each of them can stick around.
We also think the focus on GGR is a bit misleading, since taxes leave GGR untouched but cut into what shareholders get to take home. The UK situation is pretty tricky, GGR fell 24.4% while management is saying they’re just trying to balance investment and profit. FDJ United haven’t actually said how much of that fall was due to tighter marketing and bonuses, and that’s the bit that really needs to be answered. If most of it was just a deliberate choice, then that’s a strategy, if not, it’s a missed opportunity.
Guidance is moving at a pretty fast pace too. Back in July, FDJ United were saying GGR would be stable, now they’re expecting a decline.
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