PointsBet Revenue Falls 16% as VIP Betting Declines

Key Points

• PointsBet forecasts H1 FY27 revenues of A113m, down approximately 16% from A135m earned last year.
• The bookmaker attributes the steep declines in value among its most valuable customers to compliance measures taken proactively in Australia.
• The forecast normalised EBITDA loss of A6m to A8m will make for an interesting earnings day on 30 October.

PointsBet’s Big Clients Are Suddenly Betting a Lot Less After Tougher Rules Were Brought In

Things are looking a bit grim for PointsBet’s biggest players. They’ve been betting a lot less, and the bookmaker’s blaming its own decision to crack down on them. The company’s expecting to make a bit over A113m in revenue for the six months up until the end of September 2026, but that’s a whole 16% less than the A135m it made in the same period last year. And the outlook for the half-year results on October 30th is getting pretty hairy too; they’re forecasting a loss of between A6m and A8m.

The Aussie Business Is Taking All the Heat

PointsBet says the fall in revenue is all down to its Aussie operation. They haven’t given us the numbers for Australia and Canada separately, but that’ll all come clear later. But the company’s pointing to a couple of points it first made at its AGM last year.

First off, it’s the big players who are betting way less, their turnover and revenue have dropped by double digits. PointsBet says this is because of the strict compliance rules they’ve put in place, and they’re standing by that decision. I quote: “We think these decisions were pretty important in a world where the rules are getting more and more complicated in Australia.”

And the second thing is that PointsBet took a risk on the mass market, trying to get more people betting on sports. And at first, that was working out; more people were placing bets, and the company’s net win margin was looking good. But then the AFL results came in and disaster struck, the company’s net win margin was dragged down by some pretty bad scores.

Red Flags Were Up Before April Even Came Around

We all knew this was coming, to be honest. Back in the last half year, PointsBet said it was actively managing its Aussie racing turnover down because the rules were getting too strict. They also mentioned the impact of the self-exclusion register on big-time racing customers. And let’s not forget the new AFL deal that slugged them with higher fees, which pushed their Aussie gross profit down 6%.

The year itself was cut short, but the trend was still there. Revenue was up a bit to A186.6m, but the company took a A0.8m hit on an EBITDA level. And if you want to know where we sit right now, Aussie revenue was only up 4%, and they borrowed A3m from MIXI Australia just to keep things ticking over,they were down to just A4.7m in cash.

Regulators Have Increased the Price of Dangerous Gamblers

Australian gambling regulations have become stricter fast since 2023. BetStop was established in August of that year, and ACMA’s BetStop numbers released quarterly indicate 40,121 registrations by March 2025. A single registration prevents an individual from accessing any of the licensed operators of online and phone bookies.

PointsBet knows how it feels. The regulator found in May 2025 that the operator had communicated 508 marketing messages to excluded individuals in 2023. There were also delays in closing the accounts of registered clients, although none of them could bet. According to the AAP report on this matter, PointsBet made court-enforceable undertakings and paid A$500,800 in fines for spam violations.

The industry leaders are not immune to this pressure. AUSTRAC launched a civil penalty action against Entain in December 2024. AUSTRAC called it its first-ever case against an online bookie. A hearing is scheduled for 30 November 2026, but mediation between the two sides was ongoing in August, so a settlement is still a possibility.

PointsBet management saw the increased regulatory pressure coming. In an earnings call held in February 2024, the CEO Sam Swanell stated that industry-wide compliance “is at an all-time high.” The proactive phone calls to verify if their clients could afford to gamble were compared to source of funds check procedures.

MIXI’s First Half in the Focus of the Scrutiny

MIXI Australia, a subsidiary of Japan-based MIXI Inc, acquired a 66.4% controlling stake in September 2025 in a contentious deal. The earnings of PointsBet have been consolidated in MIXI’s balance sheet starting from 1 October 2025, and now the fiscal year-end of the company occurs in March. H1 FY27 is the first full half reported according to the new reporting period, and it reports a loss.

What 30 October Must Answer?

The full results are out on 30 October 2026, and there will be three key questions. The first one concerns the high-value segment and its size – investors would like to know if it has hit the bottom or if it will continue to shrink. Margins are the second item, as poor performance of the AFL season can be recovered, but the revenue loss of VIP clients might be permanent. Canada is the third question after the Ontario casino transferred to Bede Gaming in April and the registration process in Alberta started.

Analysis: The Right Decision, But a Convenient Narrative

We believe PointsBet is doing the right thing here, but that doesn’t mean the story shouldn’t be examined further. PointsBet wasn’t squeaky clean before, given that ACMA had found some issues as early as 2025; in light of AUSTRAC reviewing Entain’s behaviour, reducing exposure to risky turnover comes off as defensive rather than magnanimous.

The irony of the takeover battle situation is hard to ignore. As noted in a July 2025 ASX announcement by PointsBet, one of the factors contributing to their apprehension about the merger was the fact that the Betr business model was centred around a “less valuable and volatile VIP-heavy customer base”. Just over a year later, PointsBet’s very own high-value client pool has become the major reason for revenue decline.

The issue of concern, however, is that of substitution. PointsBet is now paying higher fees on AFL products while suffering losses on AFL results, a double penalty imposed by a single sport.