Alberta’s C$122.1M iGaming Boom Leaves Key Questions

Key Points

• In three months, Alberta’s online gaming sites raked in a whopping C122.1 million from 13 July to 30 September, with September pouring in a massive C56.6 million.
• Alberta’s report keeps talking about “steady” channelisation, but conveniently doesn’t tell us what that actually means in terms of numbers. So, we still can’t say just how many people are actually ditching offshore sites for the regulated variety.
• Ontario’s own survey and revenue model results turned out to be way off from each other, by upto ten points, no less. And that’s exactly why how you do the math matters just as much as the final answer.

Where Did Alberta’s C$122 Million Come From?

Alberta’s regulated online gaming sites picked up C$122.1 million in just 80 days. But, in their first report, they don’t give us even a rough idea of just how much of that cash came from gamers who used to use those dodgy offshore sites. That report covered the period from 13 July to 30 September and was put out by the Alberta iGaming Corporation (AiGC) on 23 October.

One thing is for sure, though. Alberta’s not interested in growing the online gaming market, they want to get as many people using their licensed sites as possible. That makes one thing pretty important to know. Why does the public release just say “channelisation is steady” without bothering to give us a percentage of how much actual switching has taken place?

September Brings A Market That’s Still Filling Up

The market just kept on growing in September. Online gaming revenue (whatever that means) came in at C$56.6 million, a 30.7% leap from August. Or to put it another way, there was a 20% jump in the amount of money people staked, but the revenue actually went up faster.

So, what’s driving all this? Casino games are still the big earners, taking in C42.8 million, or 75.6% of the total. Sports betting is also picking up steam, though, with revenue jumping from C5.2 million to C$11.1 million. That made it 19.5% of the market, while live casinos came in at 4.9%. European Gaming found that the operators kept 7.3% of sports betting stakes in September, up from 4.6% in the previous month. So, some of the revenue increase is coming from the fact that the operators are taking a bigger cut, not just people betting more often.

The number of active accounts jumped up 23.7% to 388,585, with each account raking in an average of C$146. But that’s taking into account that one person can have multiple accounts, so we don’t actually know just how many individual people are using these sites. And just to make things even more complicated, the AiGC warns that these numbers are rough and don’t cover the whole picture.

The Release Names Progress But Omits the Key Stat

The AiGC’s public release says its preliminary data “demonstrates steady channelisation” but you won’t find any channelisation percentage to brag about. Canadian Gaming Business came to the same conclusion in their review of the report.

Officials have set targets of 70% channelisation after the first year and 75% by the second year. But since these targets weren’t due until after the initial 80-day reporting period, the missing percentage isn’t really a case of missing a deadline. Instead, it raises questions about just how transparent the corporation is going to be about making progress towards its main goal.

Keene had already laid out that goal on SBC’s iGaming Daily podcast back in July, “The mandate of our market is channelisation, it’s not about growing iGaming” he said.

Why the Measuring Stick Matters?

Gaming America had already highlighted that relying on revenue alone doesn’t give you the full picture of the market. But the real question is how do you even measure channelisation in the first place?

Before the market even launched, officials were guessing that about 70% of Alberta’s online gambling activity took place outside the regulated market. But a different story emerged from Blask’s revenue model which estimated that offshore brands accounted for a whopping 89.2% of Alberta’s modelled revenue by the end of 2026.

Blask calls its measure the Competitive Earning Baseline (CEB), it’s a model that estimates how much revenue a brand could reasonably expect to earn based on search demand, visibility and competition. And it’s not based on wagers or players, that means the 89.2% figure is a model-based estimate rather than a direct measurement of market activity.

It’s not the only other example either. In 2026, Ontario’s regulator the AGCO commissioned an Ipsos study which found that 91.1% of online gamblers surveyed had placed bets on a regulated site, while 8.9% had stuck with unregulated sites.

But then Blask points out that the survey approach counts anyone who’s ever used a regulated site, even if they’ve also used an unregulated one. And in the 2023 survey wave, 19.5% of users of regulated sites had also placed bets on unregulated sites. Blask’s own model puts regulated brands at an 81% share of Ontario’s modelled revenue. So the two methods are producing figures ten points apart for the same market, which is a big difference because each method answers a different question. A survey can show whether people have used legal sites, while a revenue model estimates how much market revenue those sites are capturing.

Forecast Sets a Revenue Pace, Not a Switching Test

Before Alberta’s market launched, Minister Dale Nally had forecast a revenue of about C7.6 million in the first year. But Casino.org reported that this was based on a gross gaming revenue of C390 million per year.

The market generated C122.1 million in NAGGR during its first 80 days. That’s equal to about 31% of the annual C390 million figure, for just 22% of the year. However, the figures are comparing apples and oranges, using different revenue measures. This comparison gives you a rough idea of the market’s pace, but it doesn’t prove anything about players switching from offshore sites to licensed operators.

Operator Counts Can Vary Depending on What You’re Counting

Alberta’s transition period came to an end on October 13th. A report from SiGMA on the 15th reveals that they had 29 operators and 50 approved brands as of then. Just remember when reports start tossing those terms around, the number that gets counted can vary. It’s different from the number of licensed sites, and we get a bit confused when they’re used interchangeably.

Then on October 24th, Yogonet cited the AGLC and reckoned there were 42 operators with licences and 52 live sites. Meanwhile Canadian Gaming Business said on the 23rd that they were counting 51 licensed sites and Keene was quoted as saying he expected the number of those to jump up to 60 to 65 by early 2027.

They differ because operators, brands and sites are three different things.

Social Responsibility Funding, Try Getting a Straight Answer

Alberta’s government fact sheet breaks down how gambling revenue gets divided up. Under the system, 1% of gross gaming revenue goes to social responsibility and another 2% goes to First Nations. The operators then get to keep 80% of the net revenue, while the province pockets 20%.

On September 29th Alberta announced C$2.4 million for BrickHouse Recovery. Casino.org reported on it. That’s supposed to cover four weeks of outpatient treatment, plus eight weeks of aftercare in both Edmonton and Calgary.

Try applying a rough estimate of the 1% to the C122.1 million that’s been reported and you get about C1.2 million as a possible figure. The problem is that’s just NAGGR and not the real gross gaming revenue, which is the actual basis for how the allocation gets worked out.

So there’s no clear picture of how much the market has actually generated for social responsibilities or how it compares to the provincial commitments.

Expert Analysis: First Pick the Ruler Then the Measurement

We actually do think the revenue figures for Alberta are real, but only for the easy part of the story. The really strong takings for the first 80 days are proof that the operators can attract business. It’s just not proof that players have actually shifted over from offshore sites and onto the regulated market.

What really concerns us is how they plan on measuring that shift for real. Ontario’s own numbers show that it’s possible to get two completely different answers with a player survey and a revenue model, and those answers can differ by as much as ten whole points. Alberta itself was off by 19 points in its pre-launch estimates, and one of them reckoned the unregulated market would be at 70% while the other put the offshore share of the modelled revenue at 89.2%.

The method they choose is going to shape how the results get reported. If the province decides to report a survey figure next year, the 70% target may look within reach. On the other hand a revenue model might paint the situation as a lot further behind than that. We honestly think that Alberta should spill the beans on the method now before the results are even announced.

People have a fair point when they say that the AiGC promised to put out regular reports and maybe they’ll publish a channelisation percentage in the next update. That might help a bit, but the method behind the numbers would still matter.

It’s the same transparency issue we ran into with how the provincial government funds. The C$2.4 million for BrickHouse Recovery is nice but the public needs to be able to see the actual total or they won’t be able to get a feel for whether it’s a big or small contribution.