Tourism on the Rise in Macau While Casino Income Declines in 2026

Key Points

• In 2026, Macau recorded a total of 32.181 million tourists from January to September, a significant rise of 8.5%, while casino income rose only 3.2%.
• The month of September 2026 marks the fourth consecutive month when Casino Gross Gaming Revenue experienced a decline on a year-on-year basis, although there are 15.9% more tourists in Macau compared to last year.
• In order to reach its projected figure of MOP236 billion, Macau is expected to make a monthly income of roughly MOP16.3 billion throughout the rest of the year, making the month of October very important.

Macau recorded a stunning influx of 3,216,535 tourists in September. Despite the surge in the number of tourists, casino revenues remained lower than last year’s figure. The number of tourists increased by 15.9 per cent to 3,216,535, but the casino revenues decreased by 1.2 per cent to MOP18.06 billion. It would seem that even after examining the period of nine months, one sees the same scenario playing out, with just a lesser disparity between the two figures. The data from Macau Statistics and Census Service reveal 32,181,272 tourist arrivals over this period, a growth of 8.5 per cent. However, casino revenues were up by only 3.2 per cent to MOP 187.12 billion. So, are the extra tourists spending more or not?

Day Trippers Make Up The Majority of September’s Growth

Looking at the visitor numbers for September you can see a clear difference between visitors who spent the whole day in Macau and those who stayed a night. Same-day visitors were at 1,933,257, a rise of 23.8 per cent. Overnight visitors on the other hand only rose by 5.7 per cent to 1,283,278. This means that day trippers made up around 60% of all visitors to Macau that month.

The total visitor numbers for the first nine months are similar, same-day visitors rose by 14.5 per cent to 19,783,856 while overnight visitors stayed around the same with 12,397,416. Visitors also spent a bit less time in Macau, the average stay fell by 0.1 day to 1.0 day, although overnight visitors stayed for 2.3 days. But just because these visitors weren’t around for as long doesn’t mean they avoided the casinos, we can’t tell that from the tourism statistics.

We do however have some spending figures that offer another point of view, although they only cover spending on things outside of the gaming halls. In the first half of the year, same-day visitors raised their non-gaming spending by 53.5 per cent to MOP12.05 billion. A survey by the tourism board also found that overnight visitors spent an average of MOP4,024 on non-gaming activities, compared to MOP935 for day trippers. These figures give us some idea of how much visitors are spending on non-gaming activities, but they don’t tell us how much of that activity is taking place in the casino.

Mainland Markets Bring in the Growth

For Macau, mainland China continues to be the top supplier of tourists. It registered 23,884,916 in the number of arrivals for the first nine months, marking a growth of 10.7 per cent. From that number, individual visitors who do not have to join any tour group increased by 14.3 per cent to 13,153,979. For Taiwan, there was a growth of 21.3 per cent to 882,023. The only place that showed a decrease was Hong Kong where arrivals dropped by 0.3 per cent to 5,464,916.

Arrivals from international markets were more diversified. There was a 3.4 per cent growth in arrivals from countries other than the nearby Chinese markets amounting to 1,949,417 arrivals, lagging behind the average of 8.5 per cent. Of special note is the arrival of tourists from Thailand that increased by 34.8 per cent to 154,885. On the contrary, arrivals from Indonesia dropped by 16.5 per cent to 122,366.

The Philippines continued to be the biggest market compared to Thailand with a total of 363,120 arrivals, but its numbers declined by 5.2 per cent. Arrivals from South Korea dropped as well, decreasing by 2.1 per cent. The number of arrivals in the US showed a positive change, growing by 6.9 per cent to 120,071. In India, arrivals grew by 13.5 per cent to 91,857.

September is the Fourth Consecutive Year-on-Year Drop

GGR in September in Macau reached MOP18.06 billion and was lower by 1.2 per cent year on year. The numbers provided by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) state that it is the lowest monthly result in 2026. In addition, inside Asian Gaming highlighted that Macau has not completely recovered from the effect of the World Cup months of June and July.

For the fourth month in a row, a year-on-year decrease in GGR was registered. GGR dropped 12.1 per cent in June and 8.4 per cent in July, then continued its decline in August by 1.2 per cent and in September also by 1.2 per cent. Month-on-month comparison of GGR results was negative, too – in September GGR decreased by 17.5 per cent compared to MOP21.89 billion in August. This comparison differs from the year-on-year one. Thus, GGR growth for the first nine months of 2026 became 3.2 per cent and decreased compared to 3.7 per cent at the end of August. Also, GGR was 15.1 per cent lower than the level of September 2019.

Our estimate of GGR per number of recorded visitor arrivals shows a similar tendency. Calculating the estimate according to the available numbers, we can say that GGR per arrival in September 2026 was about MOP5,600 while in September 2025 it was approximately MOP6,600. It means a decrease of about 15 per cent, however, the estimate includes rounding. Nevertheless, the ratio has obvious limitations. Arrivals include day-trippers, non-gambling visitors, repeat visitors, etc.

Golden Week Brings Full Hotels, Room Rates Plummet

China’s National Day Golden Week brought a massive 1.143 million visitors to Macau between October 1st and 7th. Day-by-day visitor numbers rose a whopping 15.5%, and October 4th saw a staggering 210,000 arrivals, a brand new Golden Week record. Hotels were fully booked, but according to the Macao Government Tourism Office, the average occupancy rate was 91.3% during the week.

But the good news about full hotels is tempered by a very surprising fact, hotel room rates actually went down. The average room rate fell by 1.7% to MOP1,677.3 over the same time period. Weirdly, this trend is happening alongside a super high occupancy rate, but that doesn’t tell us who was staying in the hotels or what they were up to when they got there.

Analyst Vitaly Umansky from Seaport Research Partners reckons Macau’s GGR for October is going to be down 5% to MOP22.87 billion. His reason is that China is having a pretty tough time and offshore trusts are getting taxed, this could put a lot of pressure on the big spenders. Seaport also reckoned that mass market GGR per visitor fell by 5% in September, and they think this is because more visitors are coming and spending less and more and more of them are just coming for non-gaming reasons. Don’t get too caught up in this, it’s just Seaport’s take on things, not an official consensus.

What the MOP236 Billion Forecast Needs?

A week ago, Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said that the government was sticking to its MOP236 billion GGR forecast for the year. When asked if he’d change his mind after October’s figures come in, he just said he’d keep an eye on things then. Over the first nine months of the year, Macau pulled in MOP187.12 billion in GGR, which means they still need to make MOP48.88 billion in the final quarter. If they’re going to get there, they’ll need to average around MOP16.3 billion a month for the next three months, less than they managed to pull in last September at MOP18.06 billion.

But don’t just compare the numbers from September, that wouldn’t give you a full picture of how the quarter is shaping up. October last year was a real standout, generating GGR of around MOP24.09 billion. Even if Seaport’s October estimate of MOP22.87 billion ends up being right, that alone would account for nearly half of the required revenue for the final quarter.

The government’s about to release the Chief Executive’s 2027 Policy Address on November 16th and according to Inside Asian Gaming, this is going to include next year’s gaming revenue budget.

Expert Analysis: Are Record Crowds A Sign Of Growth?

In our opinion, the most meaningless indicator of Macau’s tourism performance is the number of visitors. It may seem to be logical to assume that public holidays attract more tourists to the city; however, it does not mean at all that it is beneficial for the revenues of gambling businesses. According to our calculations, the same-day visitors made up approximately 84 per cent of the total increase in visitors in September. Therefore, we would examine the number of overnight visitors, room rates, and GGR.

It may be suggested that day-trippers help in sustaining sales in other industries such as retailing and food & beverages. This claim is true from our point of view, but it is clear that Macau cannot treat an increase in footfalls as evidence of improvement in the gaming industry in addition to diversification measures.

Furthermore, it is reasonable to pay attention to the MOP236 billion target. The needed monthly average of MOP16.3 billion is less than any GGR result for 2026 so far. The authorities might say that it is quite logical to expect a cautious forecast, taking into account four months of year-on-year decreases. However, if the monthly average needed to fulfil the forecast is lower than any previous month, then it is very hard to identify any problems ahead of time.

Where do the Golden Week crowds go – the gaming tables or just hotel lobbies and streets with shops? The GGR results for October will show if Macau’s MOP236 billion target becomes more or less achievable.