Key Points
- Polymarket claimed an impressive 89.38% of Canadian prediction market searches in September, with Kalshi trailing far behind at 8.49%.
- It’s worth noting that only Ontario actually had a regulatory restriction imposed. Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec have all seemingly been shut down by Polymarket themselves.
- And just to add a bit more complexity, Polymarket’s agreement with the Ontario regulator doesn’t automatically end in April 2027. They need to get written permission from the commission before they can change it.
Polymarket is currently restricting trading in four Canadian provinces, but they seem to be attracting an awful lot of search interest, more than all their competitors put together it seems. Blask data, published by SiGMA, shows that Polymarket accounted for 89.38% of Canadian prediction market searches in September. Kalshi was a distant second with 8.49%, and the numbers suggest that Polymarket is, quite clearly, the winner here. But it’s worth looking at the regulatory documents and trying to get a better sense of the story behind all this.
Blask’s 89.38% Figure Isn’t a Measure of Trading, It’s a Measure of Search Interest
What Blask calculates as their index is based on geo-tagged search data that’s been filtered to get rid of irrelevant stuff. This tells you what people are interested in, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone is actually going to go on and make a deposit or start trading. Their brand shares are relative, which means that just because a brand is getting a lot of searches, that doesn’t automatically mean they’re going to end up with a bigger share of the market.
Polymarket’s score actually went up by 9.32% from the month before and has seen a 72.18% increase from the same time last year. Kalshi, on the other hand, actually saw a fall of 19.51% from August, although it’s worth noting that their score is still 148.7% higher than it was a year ago. One thing worth noting is that Blask doesn’t actually publish data on individual broker trading activity, so it’s a bit tricky to get a sense of how these figures actually translate into real customers.
Canadian Prediction Market Interest Fell Off a Cliff in August
Now the wider market figures tell a much different story from Polymarket’s dominance. Because what their figures are actually showing is that the lead they’ve got is based on a much smaller pool of overall search interest, and a lot of that interest seems to have dropped off a cliff just before August.
Blask’s Canadian prediction market index actually peaked at 1.71 million back in March before plummeting to 993,600 by July and then another 435,800 by August, a drop of about 56% in just one month. And then, just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse, September came along and things started to pick up a bit. The figure actually got to 515,100, which is up 18.2% from August. But even so, it was still about 70% below the March peak.
SiGMA reported a September figure of 450,500 on October 4th, which is actually about 14% higher than Blask’s latest reading. Blask says they have to recalculate historical periods because Google revises their search data, but neither of them actually explained the difference between these September numbers.
And then of course there was the fact that Polymarket actually changed the terms of their service on July 6th. But whether there’s any actual connection between that change and the drop in August is anyone’s guess, certainly no one has actually published anything that says there is.
Three Provinces’ Restrictions Seem Like Polymarket’s Own Decision
The help centre on Polymarket’s website says that the company is not available for trading in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. According to Canadian Gaming Business, the other three provinces were added to the restricted regions list following a terms update on 6 July.
The gaming regulator of Alberta had already banned political event contracts via a bulletin on 17 March. In connection with the launch of the prediction market in Alberta on 13 July, the province’s minister of iGaming Dale Nally commented on Polymarket’s decision to geo-fence itself out.
“Polymarket made the decision themselves to geo-fence themselves out,” said Nally.
The reasons behind Polymarket’s decision to restrict access to those three provinces had not been explained in response to the publication’s questions.
Dealer’s Rules Excluding Sports Contracting, but Raising Other Questions
Canadian customers wishing to trade regulated event contracts must do so with the help of a dealer licensed by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organisation (CIRO). There are only two such dealers so far: Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada.
The rules require the contracts to be at least 30 days long. The use of leverage is not allowed, and the contracts on election and political events are not acceptable.
Wealthsimple is the Canadian dealer, and Kalshi, the US company, is the provider of contracts through its exchange. Wealthsimple announced its Predict app on 18 June, and the service launched in late July. Interactive Brokers Canada trades contracts provided through ForecastEx, another US exchange.
As of 2 April, no prediction markets were recognised by Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) as an exchange or dealer.
On 27 August, CSA and CIRO stated that sports and entertainment contracts should not be covered by securities and derivatives regulations. This statement relates to securities laws only, and does not grant any permission to operators to provide sports betting services which are regulated separately by provinces.
CIRO added an express prohibition on sports and entertainment contracts to the dealer terms on 16 October. The dealers also have to refrain from presenting or offering unauthorised contracts to the clients. As those measures were introduced after the data was collected for September, they are not reflected in Blask’s numbers.
Restrictions on Ontario Are Supported by a Signed Agreement
Ontario’s restrictions stem from a settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) which came into force on 17 April 2025. According to the OSC, the operators of Polymarket have been fined $200,000 in connection with their behaviour from June 2020 to May 2023.
Furthermore, the Capital Markets Tribunal order bans Polymarket’s operators from securities and derivative trading for two years. The regulatory background dates back to 2017 when all the provinces apart from British Columbia prohibited binary options maturing within 30 days.
Moreover, another undertaking puts more restrictions on the company. Polymarket will be required to keep its Ontario restrictions forever unless it receives written permission from the commission. In addition, any marketing targeting Ontario residents will be prohibited as will promotional activities at events held in Ontario.
Polymarket will have to engage in negotiations in good faith before attempting to start operating in Ontario. The order lasts two years and expires in April 2027. However, it does not mean that the province will automatically open its borders to Polymarket.
Moreover, Canadian Gaming Business stated that Polymarket still markets itself in Ontario. On 2 April, LALIGA designated Polymarket as its official prediction market partner for the USA and Canada.
It cannot be proven that this North American partnership implies marketing targeting Ontario residents because the partnership agreement does not specify the particular province. However, promotional leaflets outside Toronto Blue Jays games can serve as such proof. Whether this marketing breaks an undertaking or not is for the commission to determine.
Expert Analysis: Canada Restricted Contracts Offered by Dealer, Not Interest
We would challenge the apparent logic of 89.38 per cent for Polymarket. This metric shows the interest in the brand, but not the number of trades made. Canadians search for Polymarket; this does not indicate how much they trade.
It seems highly unlikely that the regulated dealer offer will attract the same clients as Polymarket. No sports, politics, or contracts which settle in less than 30 days are included. There is very little left for those who already search for the Polymarket brand. As the Associated Press reports, about half of the trades made on Polymarket were associated with sports.
In our opinion, regulators preferred to ensure the protection of investors rather than to make the offer attractive. Interest in a brand which Canadians cannot trade on the licensed platform might be redirected somewhere else.
As the minister from Alberta stated, the restrictions are the company’s choice. Since the company introduced those restrictions, it can choose to take them off as well. In contrast, Ontario’s restrictions are supported by the signed order. Changes in the latter can be made only by the commission.
As it is seen from the published documents, three provinces base their restrictions on the choice of Polymarket, while Ontario uses the regulatory order.
The October and November figures from Blask are due soon. They will demonstrate whether the restricted dealer offer increased the interest in Polymarket. It will be crucial to know where that interest is going – to the licensed platforms or offshore dealers.
The contracts offered by events can expire worthless. This article is neither trading nor legal advice. Please verify if a trading platform is authorised by the relevant regulator.
Which case would Canada prefer to examine first? One province has the signed regulatory order, and three provinces depend on restrictions introduced by the company.
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