Macau’s gaming industry faced a modest setback as Typhoon Wipha disrupted travel plans and visitor inflow on July 20. This resulted in a slight decline in average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR). According to estimates from Macao Daily, the average daily GGR dipped by 3% week-on-week from MOP 657 million down to MOP 679 million recorded in the previous week.

Despite the short-term weather disruption, analysts remain optimistic about the trajectory of Macau’s recovery. Experts view the mid-month slowdown as only a temporary interruption.

Weather Impacts Visitor Traffic and VIP Turnover

The typhoon’s effects were particularly felt in the VIP and mass market segments. VIP turnover was estimated to have declined by 3% to 5% month-on-month, while mass market gaming revenue saw a milder decline of 2% to 4%.

From July 1 to 20, total gaming revenue was estimated at MOP 13.57 billion. This kept Macau on track to meet analysts’ full-month forecast of MOP 21 billion. This projection represents a 13% year-over-year increase and 86% of Macau’s pre-pandemic levels in July 2019.

Recovery Outlook Remains Stable

Citi analysts maintained their full-month projection, showing confidence in the market’s strength despite the temporary slowdown. Conversely, UBS analysts projected the average daily GGR for July at MOP 683 million. This represents a 14 percent year-on-year increase, although it is 3 percent lower than June’s average.

Significantly, the data exceeds market expectations, which had been set between MOP 650 million and MOP 660 million. This highlights the market’s resilience in the face of short-term disruptions. Therefore, investors are prepared to support Macau in the face of external challenges.

Entertainment-Led Visitation Could Drive Late-Month Gains

Industry experts believe the momentum in Macau’s gaming sector will be sustained till the latter part of July. This is due to the several high-profile events and concerts scheduled across major resorts. They will boost foot traffic and gaming activity in the mass market segment, as tourists combine leisure with gambling.

The city’s long-term recovery hinges on three key pillars: stable VIP volumes, a resilient mass market, and entertainment-led tourism. With conditions stabilising in the aftermath of Typhoon Wipha, Macau is set to close the month on a strong note, Despite the interruption, the market outlook looks encouraging for July, reinforcing confidence in the city’s ability to surpass expectations.