Italy’s 2027 Gambling Tax Plan: Why €770m Matters

Key Points

• Meloni’s 700 million euros is just a rough estimate. But a leaked breakdown from Jamma actually puts the total at around 770 million euros.
• Slots, betting shops, bingo and scratch cards are the ones who’ll be left holding the bag for the majority of the costs. There’s no sign of an online gambling levy in the leak, at least not yet.
• Venue owners are warning that a bigger tax on gaming machines could leave up to one in five specialist halls running on thin ice.

One Budget Line, Four Different Numbers

So which figure should Italian gambling operators be planning their 2027 budgets around? Back on 28th October, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the government would be grabbing “another 700 million euros” from the gambling industry. This came hot on the heels of the Cabinet rubber-stamping a budget worth around 26 billion euros. Four other figures have since emerged and each one seems to be from a different source.

Guess what, Italy’s Draft Budgetary Plan, sent off to Brussels back in mid-October, says that gambling revenue should be around 0.03% of GDP in both 2027 and 2028. But that drops to 0.02% by 2029. News reports have taken this and worked out that these percentages translate to roughly 718 million euros for the first two years and 478 million euros by the final year. Meloni’s 700 million euros is probably a rough estimate of the first one of those.

A report in Il Sole 24 Ore on the 29th of October suggests the government might actually be looking at getting its hands on a lot more money. They say Rome is thinking in terms of more than 900 million euros a year, for the period of 2027 to 2029. This one’s still just a reported government target, not something that’s officially in the budget.

Tinkering with the lottery aggio might not be as easy as all that. Back in 2025, a nine-year concession for the Lotto was awarded to an IGT-led team at a fixed aggio rate of 6%. Putting the rate up before the contract runs out could raise some tricky legal issues for the government.

Gambling is just one part of the overall funding plan. The government is looking to get a bit more out of the banks and insurance companies too, they’re talking about over 5 billion euros from them. Under the same budget measures, the corporate tax rate for banks will be going up from 27.5% to 30.5%.

What The Leaked Draft Puts On The Table?

The most detailed look so far comes from a report in CasinoBeats on the leaked draft. They’re citing some information from Jamma, who reported on October 29th. The proposed measures aren’t set in stone yet and parliament can change them if they want to.

According to the leak, retail concessions covering slots, betting and bingo will be allowed to keep running until the end of 2029. This should bring in around 305 million euros for the government in 2027.

Gaming machines will face a higher tax rate, though an increase in the PREU levy. The rate for AWP slots is going from 24% of stakes to 25%, that should bring in an estimated 150 million euros. And for VLTs, the rate will go from 8.6% to 9.6%, that adds up to around 165 million euros.

All in all, these four measures will raise around 770 million euros.

Operators Issue Warnings Of Closure

In response to increased taxation, EGP-FIPE, an association of operators who hold licences for gaming venues, issued a statement on 29 October. According to the organisation, increased taxation of slot machines will lead to a situation where at least 20% of specialist venues will become non-profitable. Furthermore, according to the organisation, thousands of jobs are in jeopardy.

Dario Peirone, director general of the Istituto Milton Friedman think tank, also warned of the dangers of increased taxation. In his opinion, Italy’s gambling network is unlikely to bear additional costs because of the limited margin it currently operates at.

Government data shows that the revenue from gaming machines is falling. During the first six months of 2026, about €2.45 billion was credited to the PREU account. This figure is approximately 6% lower than €2.6 billion in the corresponding period last year.

The Court of Auditors also stated a fall in tax collection from gambling. According to the court’s calculations, gambling taxes were reduced by approximately €200 million during the first eight months of 2026.

Online Operators Keep Silent, Not Safe

The leak of the figures does not refer to a specific increase in taxation of online gambling. However, this does not necessarily mean that the situation does not affect online operators.

The current licensing process in Italy started in November 2025. A total of 52 licences were granted to 46 operators. For each licence, operators paid €7 million, as well as 3% of their net profit each year.

The Italian gambling system for online operators also has a technical deadline in 2027. According to the gambling regulator, ADM, technical and functional testing of gambling systems has to be done by 12 February 2027. The certified gambling systems are planned to be launched on 15 February 2027.

Gambling advertising is banned in Italy. Thus, online operators have no way to market their product if costs go up.

According to a legal expert consulted by iGaming Business, primary legislation guarantees tax stability for nine years. Another legal expert in the same report says that terms of concessions do not automatically protect online operators from tax changes.

How Rome Hit This Number?

The current plan was cobbled together after a failed attempt to shake things up in Italy’s land-based gambling sector. That effort ended in early August when the government suddenly dropped its proposed reform decree after years of going round in circles with regional authorities. At the time, reports suggested that the planned tenders could have brought in a whopping €1.5 billion.

So where do we go from there? Well, licence extensions were the next best thing for the Treasury to rake in some cash. Just a week later, on 16 September, the Economy Ministry came out and said that cracking down on some of the dodgier aspects and getting more tax money back in 2027 would be top of the agenda. And then, five days later, whispers started going round about a package worth between €400 million and €500 million. It was all about extending the retail concessions for three years, and that was expected to bring in the bulk of the cash.

Now, the existing extensions are already bringing in a tidy €232.76 million every year. But the leaked proposal would knock on an extra €305 million in 2027 alone from the retail extension. That’s a pretty significant jump.

And What’s Next

The budget bill has got to make it through the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate before the end of the year, or else it’s all over. Parliament can still throw in some curveballs and make changes, so the final legislation might look a bit different from what we’ve seen so far.

The retail operators themselves are also staring down the barrel, as their current licences are due to expire on 31 December 2026. The government needs to figure out what’s what before then, or else a lot of people are going to be facing some uncertainty.

This is also Prime Minister Meloni’s last full budget before the country goes to the polls next year. And let’s not forget the country’s growing public finance problems, Italy’s deficit is forecast to hit 3.4% of GDP in 2027, which is a bit above the European Union’s 3% limit and getting closer to 2.9% this year.

The Experts Weigh In

We think the actual number is the least interesting bit of this story, €700 million from Meloni, €770 million if you go by the leaked draft, or even €900 million according to some reports, they can all exist at the same time, and you’d never even notice.

Our take on the leaked draft is pretty straightforward. Every single number in there, when you add them up, comes from gaming machines, retail concessions, or scratch cards. And let’s face it, Treasury figures already show that tax revenue from gaming machines is in free fall. Meloni said that this budget wasn’t aimed at any particular group, but we reckon that’s a bit tough to swallow considering some of the reports we’ve seen.

DLA Piper partner Giulio Coraggio reckons that the plan is actually working against the government’s own interests, he says they’re “setting a target on a market that their own measures will shrink”. We agree that’s a risk, but with one tiny caveat, the leak remains unconfirmed, and Parliament could still water down the proposals before they become law.

Our view is, if you’re going to raise taxes on gambling, you need to come up with a solid plan to tackle those dodgy operators who are always trying to fly under the radar.

Britain’s recent experience with higher gambling taxes is a case in point, they raised Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 21% on 1 April 2026. Coraggio mentions estimates that higher taxes could push more betting activity into the hands of the black market operators. He also accepts that affordability checks and stake limits can contribute to the problem.