Macau’s VIP gaming segment is expected to remain a relatively small contributor to casino revenue over the medium term as the market shifts towards mass gambling, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF described a “structural shift” since the COVID-19 pandemic, with mass-market play driving the recovery. It represented about 73% of gross gaming revenue in 2025, while tighter junket rules are expected to keep the VIP share low.
Also, the assessment appeared in the IMF’s latest Macau consultation report and reflected regulatory changes introduced after the 2022 gaming-law reforms. These included stronger governance, stricter licensing, limits on gaming credit and increased anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing enforcement.
Junket operators once recruited high-value customers, arranged credit and managed collections. Their influence has declined under the tighter framework, while licensed casino concessionaires have taken more control of gaming credit. Increased scrutiny of large transfers and debt collection has added pressure to the traditional high-roller model.
Mass Market Gaming Leads Macau’s Casino Recovery
VIP baccarat generated MOP15.90 billion ($1.98 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, falling 2.6 per cent year on year and 18.8 per cent from the previous quarter. It accounted for 26.1 per cent of gaming revenue, compared with 46.2 per cent in 2019.
Macau’s overall casino GGR rose 9.1 per cent in 2025 to about 85 per cent of its pre-pandemic level. Revenue increased another 6.9 per cent during the first half of 2026, with the IMF attributing the growth to mass-market gambling.
Authorities are targeting ordinary tourists and premium-mass customers while expanding hotels, entertainment, shopping and other non-gaming activities. The policy forms part of Macau’s effort to reduce dependence on high-end gambling and broaden its tourism economy.
Gaming still represents an estimated 40 to 45 per cent of Macau’s GDP, and visitors from mainland China account for about 70 per cent of arrivals. The IMF identified weaker mainland growth, higher gaming competition, trade tensions, financial volatility and a prolonged property downturn as risks.
The figures point to a casino recovery carried by mass play. VIP business has improved from pandemic lows, but remains below its former role in revenue and customer acquisition.
Macau’s recovery is becoming obvious on the casino floor, but not yet outside it. Mass-market growth reduces reliance on VIP junkets, while gaming’s large share of GDP leaves the economy exposed until non-gaming investment produces a more meaningful contribution.
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