€4.5B Veikkaus Debate: Could Finland Sell Its Gambling Company?

Key Points

• The potential value of Veikkaus could reach up to €4.5 billion as Finland gets ready to lift the country’s monopoly on online gambling and license third parties from 1 July 2027, sparking new debates regarding either the partial or complete privatisation of the state-owned firm.
• Political parties have been unable to agree upon the fate of the state lottery firm due to the fact that some claim that the state does not require the gambling business whereas others regard it as a means of generating income for the government.
• Veikkaus is currently going through drastic changes, however, declining revenue figures, increasing competition, and customer retention concerns could become an obstacle in terms of the company’s potential value.

Until recently, Veikkaus was considered to be one of the most stable state-owned enterprises in Finland. All this has changed due to a regulatory change which is set to liberalise the Finnish online gambling market and create a new debate worth billions of euros. In addition, private operators are willing to participate in the process, political parties hold various opinions, and even experts estimate Veikkaus’ worth at €4.5 billion.

The Monopoly Period Is Approaching Its Close

The debate around Veikkaus has intensified as Finland prepares for a licensed gambling system which it plans to launch from 1 July 2027. With the implementation of this system, Veikkaus would lose its monopoly in online casino and sports gambling services, thus ending a period where profits from these sources have been going directly to the government. This is not just about regulation but a change in the business structure of Veikkaus which will no longer exist in its current form. Rather than enjoying a protected market, it will compete with other international gambling organisations that are seeking entry into the Finnish market.

Aware of the enormity of the situation, Veikkaus has split itself up into two independent businesses with its online venture working on restructuring itself before the onset of competition. The changes being observed by Veikkaus are common in many gambling markets throughout the world. The performance of monopoly players in such situations depends greatly on the extent of restrictions on competition. Once this hurdle is removed, other factors come to the fore.

Political Parties Differ on Ownership

As market liberalisation moves closer, another issue has returned. Should Finland continue to own Veikkaus? Research by national broadcaster Yle showed clear divisions among political parties. The Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party signalled openness towards a sale. SDP Party Secretary Mikkel Näkkäläjärvi said that the state has no special strategic reason to own a gaming company in the current situation. Centre Party representative Mika Lintilä expressed a similar view, saying Veikkaus is no longer a strategic company for the state in the way it once was.

LiikeNyt took the strongest position in favour of the market, supporting full privatisation and a stock exchange listing. Opposition to a sale remains small but visible. The Left Alliance was the only party that clearly rejected the idea. MP Timo Furuholm highlighted Veikkaus’ long record of providing government revenue. Parties in the governing coalition chose a more careful approach. The National Coalition Party did not support either side and argued that civil-service analysis should first review market developments and wider social effects.

The Swedish People’s Party abstained from making any kind of statement regarding the matter because the Minister responsible for ownership steering was Joakim Strand. Neither the Finns Party nor the Christian Democrats adopted a firm stance. Both instead focused on concerns that a one-off sale could be used to cover recurring government spending. They also stressed that reducing gambling harm must remain a priority regardless of ownership decisions.

The €4.5 Billion Issue

Interest in the ownership debate increased after industry consultant and former Veikkaus executive Jari Vähänen drew attention from international gambling operators. He told Yle that several gaming companies had contacted them to ask whether Veikkaus could be available for sale. Vähänen estimated a value of up to €4.5 billion ($5.24 billion). His calculation used a ten-times multiple of Veikkaus’ annual gaming surplus of about €450 million ($523 million).

According to his assessment, the company contains two main parts. This consists of casino products as well as betting on sports, and its value may range from 1 to 1.5 billion Euros. The other monopoly products, namely those of Lotto and gaming machines, may be worth approximately 3 billion Euros. These numbers create a difficult decision for policymakers. Selling the company could deliver a major one-time return. However, future earnings would no longer go to the state. The balance between immediate proceeds and future revenue remains central to the discussion.

The Customer Database May Be the Key Factor

One of Veikkaus’ strongest assets may not be its technology, products, or infrastructure. Growing attention is being placed on customer information. Vähänen pointed to a database containing as many as 2.5 million customers. As competition enters the market, keeping those players could have a major effect on both performance and valuation. He stated that if those customers cannot be retained, the value of the licensed business would be much lower. If operations begin with 2.5 million customers, Veikkaus could lead the market.

His remarks highlight a challenge often faced by former monopoly operators. Liberalisation opens the door for new competitors, yet established brands can gain an advantage if they successfully move existing customers into the new framework. The company’s ability to retain and transfer its customer base may determine whether current valuation expectations remain realistic.

Pressure from Falling Results

The valuation debate is taking place while Veikkaus is already facing weaker financial results. Vähänen said that the company’s returns have almost fallen by half over the past five years. Continued uncertainty around ownership and market positioning could lower value further as the transition approaches. Other industry observers have raised similar concerns. Gaming lawyer Antti Koivula previously stated that Veikkaus has not been competitive for some time.

He also pointed out that the company has lost around 40% of its gross gaming revenue within roughly five years, which represents a significant decline. These figures matter because future investors are expected to focus less on profits generated under monopoly conditions and more on the company’s ability to earn revenue in a competitive environment.

Past performance alone can no longer guarantee future value.

Getting Ready for the Open Market

Veikkaus has already started making plans for the changes that are coming. During March 2025, Executive Vice President of Casino and Sports Betting Jarkko Nordlund said the company is putting in a lot of work to hold a leading place when Finland opens its online gambling market. To support that goal, Veikkaus has been carrying out a modernisation programme that has continued for several years.

One key step was the replacement of the sportsbook platform that DraftKings supplied before, with technology from OpenBet. At the same time, changes across technology systems and product offerings are intended to help Veikkaus face international operators that are expected to enter Finland after licensing starts. Government Ownership Steering Department Director Maija Strandberg also advised against rushing into any sale decision.

From her standpoint, the year 2030 looks more likely than the coming years for any divestment process. She explained that a sale can move forward only when three requirements are in place, legislative reforms allowing divestment, corporate governance structures, and market conditions that support such a move. Strandberg also pointed to an issue that is becoming harder to ignore.

A company’s past profits do not guarantee future appeal. Before valuation expectations can be confirmed, Veikkaus needs to show that it can perform under the new licensing framework.

Why Does This Choice Extend Beyond Veikkaus?

The discussion is about more than ownership. People across the gambling sector have often said that a licensed market will change revenue flows, competitive standing, and policy responsibilities. Because of that, any privatisation decision requires attention to financial matters, consumer safeguards, and efforts aimed at reducing gambling harm. Vähänen has spoken strongly about governance concerns.

Earlier, he urged the government to sell its holding, saying that regulating the market while remaining an owner creates a conflict. He wrote in his response to Finland’s liberalisation framework in 2024 that state ownership of a gambling company operating in a competitive market remains a questionable solution. That position raises a policy question that governments in many countries are facing. Can a state regulate a competitive gambling market while also taking part in that same market through ownership?

Expert View: What Comes Next for the Industry?

The main development is not the €4.5 billion valuation. Instead, the larger shift comes from moving away from a protected monopoly towards a competitive market model. For operators, Finland is becoming one of Europe’s most-watched regulated gambling opportunities. International brands will be able to enter a market that has strong digital participation and a gambling customer base that already exists. Those prospects attract attention, although rising competition is expected to increase customer acquisition costs.

For Veikkaus, the issue centres on strategy. Its future value will depend on whether investments in technology, product development, and customer connections continue to deliver results without monopoly protection. Customer migration, market share retention, and digital performance are expected to become the key measures of success. Looking across the industry, Finland may become an example of how former state monopolies respond after liberalisation.

If the transition works well, similar reforms could receive support elsewhere. Should the outcome disappoint, calls for stronger state involvement may grow. Private operators, technology providers, investors, and consumers could benefit from these developments through wider product access. At the same time, risks remain for public funding channels that depend on Veikkaus profits and for operators that find it difficult to compete in a busier market.

Further updates on regulatory developments will be available in the Regulation Section.