Key Points
- HJR 52 will give legislators the right to introduce casinos and sports betting, which will be voted on by the people on 2 November 2027.
- Dan Patrick was defeated, but Republicans still control 19 seats out of 31 in the Texas Senate.
- 10 licences, 40-year terms and 15% revenue tax cap may work in favour of those operators that were ready for Texas.
Dan Patrick lost the race for the position of lieutenant governor on 3 November, but Republicans still control 19 seats in the Texas Senate that he was heading. Six days later Rep. Charlie Geren submitted an amendment that allows casinos and sports betting. Who may be the winners from HJR 52 and why are the license terms so strict?
What HJR 52 Will Allow And What Not?
According to the text of the submitted HJR 52 amendment, the citizens will vote for or against the right of legislators to allow casino and sports betting. However, another bill is needed to establish the licences, taxes and operating rules. Casino gambling will be allowed only in physical casinos, which means that online casinos will remain prohibited.
In total, Texas will issue up to 10 casino licences for a period of at least 40 years. Revenue of casinos and sports betting will pay a tax of not more than 15%. This amendment will also prevent other taxes or fees on that revenue apart from the taxes paid by all businesses.
It does not include any requirement for sports betting to be conducted in physical casinos, which leaves mobile betting unclear. Also, it contains tribal compacts for Texas’ three federally recognised tribes.
The amendment was filed by Geren on 9 November – the first day when bills could be introduced, after he introduced a similar amendment in 2023. His explanation of the reason behind the introduction of the amendment can be found in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram: “If they say ‘no’, then we’re done with it forever.”
Though Patrick is Gone, Republicans Hold Power in the Senate
Patrick served as lieutenant governor for eight years in 2015 and claimed in 2023 that “there is little to no support for expanding gaming from the Senate GOP.” Vikki Goodwin, the Democrat who will take office in January, favoured the 2023 bill when she was serving as a state representative. Addressing WFAA, she stated regarding casinos, “I’m ambivalent on gambling.” Then, Goodwin continued saying, “I would be willing to put it up to a vote of Texans.”
The lieutenant governor has significant powers over the work of the Senate as he appoints committee chairs and decides what legislation gets to the floor vote. KPRC reported that the Republican senators might be able to change Senate rules to limit Goodwin’s power over the committees and floor.
Requirements for Getting 21 Senate and 100 House Votes
For a constitutional amendment to be considered by the voters, it needs to get at least 21 Senate and 100 House votes. There are 19 Republicans among the total 31 members of the Senate. Hence, even if all 12 Democrats supported the proposition, nine Republicans would need to vote “for.”
Numbers in the House remain unclear. According to Texas Tribune’s election projection, Democrats would have 83 seats if the results remain valid. MultiState’s tracker showed 81 Democratic seats; five seats remained to be counted. Thus, if all the Democrats back the amendment, Republicans would have to give 17 votes based on the first number or 19 based on the second one. Also, one gain by the Democrats in House District 93 in Tarrant County might face the issue of the eligibility of the winner.
Approval seems hard even considering past votes. On 11 May 2023, the sports betting amendment got approved by the House with 101 votes to 42, satisfying the requirement of 100 votes. Another casino amendment got only 92 votes and failed, according to the Texas Tribune. The incoming governor, Gina Hinojosa, opposed both propositions. However, as the governor, she cannot veto a constitutional amendment. Greg Abbott, Hinojosa’s predecessor, initially agreed with online sports betting until he raised the concern about gambling addiction, PlayUSA reported.
Texas Offers an Opportunity to Casino Executives
Before the first committee hearings have been held, the casino CEOs have already discussed the opportunity to operate in Texas. During Thursday’s earnings call, the CEO of Wynn, Craig Billings, stated, “The whole landscape changed.” He referred to Texas as “kind of a stealth market that is giant” due to the number of Texans visiting tribal casinos in Oklahoma.
Penn operates two of the three Class 1 thoroughbred racecourses in Texas, Sam Houston and Retama Park. The CEO of Penn, Snowden, assured investors, “We’re ready to play offence.” He added that his company was “positioned as well, if not better than really anybody in the sector.” The CEO of Las Vegas Sands, Patrick Dumont, has earlier hinted that their future Mavericks arena will incorporate a casino. The company spokesman stated that it is too early to say anything, and Las Vegas Sands will observe further developments.
More Proposals and Interests to Complicate the Issue Further
Sen. Carol Alvarado has submitted another proposal, SJR 11, which allows for casinos and sports betting while establishing a gaming commission. In addition, SJR 12, another proposal, gives the Kickapoo Traditional Tribe the possibility to negotiate its own compact. The tribe was against the 2023 casino proposal as it believed that a new casino would take away its clients in San Antonio.
The legislative session has not yet started, meaning that none of the three proposals has gone through the committee stage yet. Religious organisations remain opposed to gambling expansion as well. KPRC reports that the Southern Baptist Convention has condemned sports betting in a June 2025 resolution.
What to Expect on the First Legislative Meeting on 12 January
KPRC summarised the current status as follows: “For now, nothing about Texas gambling laws has changed.” On 12 January 2027, when the Legislature begins its work, the House speaker will appoint HJR 52 to a committee. The proposal will require two-thirds votes in both chambers to go to a public vote on 2 November 2027. A majority of voters will be enough for approval.
It is possible for lawmakers to discuss casinos and sports betting separately, giving the chance for either of the proposals to pass.
Expert Analysis: The Fight Is Not for Public Approval of Casinos
The natural assumption is that a victory for Democrats means that the introduction of casinos in Texas is very likely. We think that the Senate’s procedures rather than public approval should determine the outcome. It was Patrick who managed to control the order of proposals’ advancement and the Republicans might change it. Goodwin might be ready to approve voting, but it is not enough.
It seems that investors were more optimistic about the result. Shares of Las Vegas Sands increased by 6.5% on 4 November, while Jefferies’ analyst David Katz called Goodwin’s victory a “positive surprise” for the company, according to Bloomberg. The price increase is an indicator of optimism, but it does not prove the ability of HJR 52 to gain 21 votes in the Senate.
We think that the wording of the amendment and the possibility for it to favour those operators who are preparing for the launch in Texas matter the most. The cap of ten licences for each 40-year minimum term would provide the operators with a stable position for decades. KERA News informs that in January 2023 Las Vegas Sands had already registered 69 lobbyists in Texas. It is a legal procedure, but the voters are entitled to know what companies need these ten licences. Texas Sands PAC, associated with Miriam Adelson, is also one of the biggest donors of the attorney general-elect Nathan Johnson, having contributed $120,000. He offered an amendment to legalise casinos and sports betting in 2025, but we do not make any connections between these events.
The supporters also have a legitimate argument. In 2023 during the hearing Rep. John Kuempel stated that the purpose was not to introduce “slot machines in gas stations and convenience stores”. However, we think that voters should examine the issue of casinos and sports betting separately. By including both of them in one initiative, the opponents have one item to fight against, while the 2023 casino vote showed the weakness of legislative support.
Is it possible that the Republican senators would limit the power of Goodwin before the HJR 52 goes to the Senate?
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