Key Points
- Fagioli’s ‘Lula Law’ would shut down online sports betting & casino games in Buenos Aires Province, & give players 30 days to collect any cash they’ve got left in their accounts.
- There’s a rival set of 27 proposals floating around which would let licensed betting continue, but would introduce some pretty tough checks to make sure players are who they say they are, & set up a new branch of law enforcement just for this province.
- The Brazilian Supreme Court is holding a public session at the end of November to talk about online betting, not to make a ruling. Meanwhile, the regulator reckons a whopping 80% of online gambling happens on dodgy sites, but they haven’t said how they worked out that one.
One senator wants to pull the plug on every licensed betting site in Buenos Aires Province. Senator Federico Fagioli has dubbed his proposed ban the ‘Lula Law’, in a nod to what’s happened in Brazil. Just last month, the President banned fixed odds betting down there, & Fagioli wants Buenos Aires Province to do the same. But other lawmakers are cooking up a very different recipe. They want to make the rules tighter, but give licensed betting a stay of execution. And right now, the debate is all about a statistic from the provincial regulator, even though they haven’t explained how they came up with that number.
Fagioli’s Bill Would Definitely Shut Down Licensed Betting
Fagioli’s proposed bill to ban online betting is a pretty drastic one, it would put a stop to all sorts of stuff. Banned would be slots, roulette, blackjack, poker and sports betting, but lotteries, quinielas and raffles would be okay. According to local reports, Fagioli is targeting Articles 146 to 173 of Law 15,079, which is Buenos Aires Province’s existing online betting law.
The ban would come in stages, first, operators would have to stop taking deposits, then they’d need to end any new games that were going on, take down their ads & block users in the province. After that, they’d have 30 days to pay back every player’s balance & file a detailed report with the lottery people.
Fagioli reckons that the way online betting is set up these days, available to anyone, anywhere in the world, has completely changed the face of gambling. He thinks it needs a rethink to make sure licensed operators can really keep problem gamblers at bay.
But Fagioli’s proposed ban would only apply to Buenos Aires Province, the autonomous city in the same area has its own lottery system, so operators licensed there wouldn’t be affected. And as for when this would actually come to a vote, well, nobody’s made any promises on that front.
A Rival Package Would Ensure Market Openness
Whereas Fagioli suggests shutting down all licensed online gambling sites, legislators of the provincial Chamber of Deputies have their own package. It is called a “megaproyecto” and involves merging 27 legislative proposals into one package to ensure its passing within this legislative year.
In this regard, operators would have to submit to more rigorous identity checks which may include facial recognition, as well as verification against the national RENAPER registry. This proposal also involves such tools as self-exclusion, limits set by players, and additional restrictions on advertising with the aim of protecting minors.
Moreover, there are plans to strengthen enforcement of this legislation. According to the proposal, it is intended to establish a special prosecutor’s office in La Plata which will conduct investigations into the activity of illegal betting websites and shut them down. Besides, bank accounts used by such sites can be blocked. However, there is a dispute between the political parties concerning financing and enforcement of the system.
Furthermore, the gambling profits may be linked to public good. As per the Tignanelli and Olivetto proposal, authorised casino operators would have to transfer 3% of their monthly prize pools. 85% of this sum will be distributed to public-good organisations and sport whereas 15% of the profit will go to scholarships for excellent sportsmen. One of the secretaries of a taekwondo association who supports this proposal explained that “Sometimes, we can’t even pay the electricity bill”. This proposal, as well as measures described above, is not in force.
Taxation Issues Behind the Debate
On 6 January 2022 Betsson started operating in the Buenos Aires Province having been issued a licence by the provincial lottery institute. At that time, NEXT.io reported a 25% taxation rate and 15-year licences. It was impossible to verify the tax rate against the current legal text so this figure should be regarded as information provided in 2022.
According to Tomás García Botta, a lawyer from MF Estudio Abogados, these measures could become law. Nevertheless, he questioned the logic of such actions. “It is possible to introduce such measures at the provincial level. They could be passed. However, why would the province need tax revenue in such a situation? I don’t understand it,” García Botta said to NEXT.io. Prohibition could also be unconstitutional.
The Regulator’s Claim of 80% of Online Gambling Being Illegal, Without Any Actual Method to Back It Up
The current debate has also thrown up some interesting figures including one from Gonzalo Atanasof, head of the provincial lottery institute. He told lawmakers that 80% of online gambling is taking place on illegal sites, but we’ve found that the institute’s own statement specifically says that this figure is in the context of online gambling. Oddly though, another report was going around which had the same figure, but apparently it’s talking about all of gambling in Argentina. We can’t help but wonder how they actually came up with that estimate though, because neither version explains the method.
After a legislative committee meeting on 19 October, Atanasof made a pretty clear point about where he thinks the focus should be: “The energy must be focused on prosecuting illegal gambling.”
García Botta also highlighted the issue of underage betting and its link to dodgy websites. “Kids are going to dodgy websites to gamble,” he said & they’re the result of two decades of not doing enough to actually enforce the law.”
Brazil is another point of comparison, but this time the figures are coming from a bit of a different place altogether. A study commissioned by the IBJR, an industry body, took a look at the market in the first half of 2026. They reckoned that illegal sites accounted for 38% to 44% of online betting, which is actually a bit down from the 41% to 51% range they reported earlier, in the previous survey. The researchers spoke to 2,291 bettors in May.
Both sides of the debate in Buenos Aires can use these findings to back up their arguments. The pro-regulation side can point to the decline in Brazil’s estimated share of the market, while the anti-regulation side can still argue that it’s still a pretty sizeable number.
But Brazil’s Ban Is Still Up in the Air, It’s Got to Get Through Court and Congress
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the provisional measure on 25 September. It means operators had to cough up R$30 million for each 5-year licence and interestingly, that money’s not going to be refunded. Within a few days, the Brazilian government had already removed 506 websites that were still offering bets.
Lula won re-election with just a shade under 52% of the vote, beating Flávio Bolsonaro by a hair. He’s since described the suspension as “that’s it, game over” when asked about the suspension.
However, the measure is still going to have to get through a bunch of legal hurdles first. Justice Luiz Fux has got a public hearing at the Supreme Federal Court lined up for 3 November and a fair few parties are coming along to give their two cents, including football clubs, broadcasters and the Finance Ministry.
The hearing will be an opportunity for them to put their case forward but it won’t actually decide whether the measure is constitutional. The legal challenges are still very much up in the air. Fux called the session urgent because of the financial impact the measure is going to have on football and also because it’s all getting a bit unclear.
Meanwhile, Congress is offering another route for people to challenge or change the policy altogether. There’re around 100 amendments currently under consideration (some of which would keep sports betting but ditch online casinos) and the ordinary review deadline is looming in late November, although it could get extended a bit longer by lawmakers.
Expert Analysis: Enforcement Could Be the Key
While considering the Lula Law, we treat it as an intent and not a ready-to-pass proposition. Its sponsor has not set any specific voting date, one deputy believes that prohibition requires a federal law, and a lawyer has expressed his concern regarding potential constitutional problems. All this is a barrier, but it does not mean that the bill will not get through.
It is questionable how the proposed exemption for lotteries can work. The bill aims to ban slots and sports betting because of their bad impact on public health but allows state-run draws. There can be a good justification for this discrepancy, but we have not heard it yet.
Another controversial point is the regulator’s estimate of 80%. If this number is correct, then the majority of online gambling activities take place on the black market under the present regulation. Those who support the bill will be able to say that licensing did not help while the regulators will blame the lack of enforcement. But without the methodology used to calculate this number, there is no way to prove either side right, and an explanation is necessary.
One more aspect to mention is Brazil. According to the industry-commissioned study, the illegal share has fallen below the previous year’s level, even though the ranges of the two years overlap. In the case of a ban in Buenos Aires Province, the legal market will be eliminated. And the question of whether illegal operators would win remains to be answered by the province.
Some answers could come from the court meeting in Brasília on 3 November. This time there will be discussions and not a decision. Also, deputies in La Plata will watch the situation. One of the bills will soon reach its deadline, while the other does not have a specified date for voting yet.
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