Polymarket, operating as a blockchain-based prediction platform, attracted attention again as users reacted with mixed emotions to markets on political and military events. In the last week of December, several markets opened on the possibility of a military conflict and political collapse in Venezuela, and this brought fear into trading spaces. The markets allowed bets on United States military involvement and on the removal of President Nicolás Maduro from power, which stirred hope and anxiety.

Prediction Markets Under Fire Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

While political and security tensions around Venezuela increased, these markets became active and participants felt stress with each update. Trading activity rose during the days before the US operation linked to the country, and traders felt pressure as volumes climbed. This scenario renewed debate on whether public prediction markets should permit betting on war, military action, or the fall of governments, creating concern. Critics state these events involve human suffering and should not serve as financial opportunities, and this view carries anger and sorrow.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket enables users to place money on yes or no outcomes tied to real-world events, blending risk and emotion. The platform earlier listed markets connected to geopolitical issues, and this background fuels caution. In November 2025, Polymarket set up a market betting on a military clash between India and Pakistan before 2026. The timing rattled people. They went live with that bet just after a car bomb exploded near Delhi’s Red Fort on November 10, killing at least 13 and injuring over 20. 

These earlier listings raised similar concerns as they followed violent or unstable events, leading to frustration. Venezuela markets now add to this debate by focusing on armed conflict, leadership change, and international military action, deepening concern.

Traders Place Millions on Venezuela Outcomes

Traders using Polymarket placed millions of dollars on markets connected to Venezuela, and many felt tension while watching positions linked to national events. Most activity focused on whether President Maduro would leave office and whether the US would enter military action, which caused worry and expectation. Several markets predicting Maduro’s exit by set dates showed sudden changes that shocked many participants. In some cases, implied probability moved from single-digit levels to more than 99 per cent within hours after the US operation became public. Markets connected to the US-Venezuela military engagement also traded close to certainty, which brought strong belief among traders. This trend suggests many traders believed engagement had already happened or would soon receive official confirmation, creating confidence.

Trading volumes ranged from about $926,000 to nearly $3 million, showing large amounts of money involved and emotional pressure. By contrast, markets predicting outcomes like a full US invasion or a formal war declaration stayed at lower probability levels. These markets traded between 2 per cent and 9 per cent, which eased fear among some observers. At the same time, markets on maritime seizures, drug-interdiction actions, and Venezuelan-linked shipping activity showed probabilities between 50 per cent and 66 per cent.

This pattern suggests traders expected continued action but not major escalation, which brought mixed feelings. Some researchers say prediction markets often show speculation instead of reliable forecasting, and this view brings caution. Ananay Jain, a policy and gaming-law expert at Grant Thornton Bharat LLP, told SiGMA News that betting on war shifts focus from human cost. He said these markets appear to measure probability but often turn fear into profit, which creates discomfort. According to him, moral questions matter more than legal ones when conflict becomes something people trade.

$30,000 Wager Grows into $400,000 Payout

Public scrutiny rose after reports revealed a fresh Polymarket account placed heavy bets on Maduro’s removal shortly before the US operation, sparking alarm. During late December 2025, this account put more than $30,000 into markets predicting Maduro would exit office by 31 January 2026, despite low odds. At that time, many people felt disbelief as the chances for this outcome stayed at extremely low levels.

Then there’s the case with Maduro. US forces stormed into his house one Saturday and took him and his wife. A trader walked away from that event with $436,759.61, all in less than a week. That kind of return, 1,200 per cent over the original stake, left a lot of people stunned. Entrepreneur and investor Joe Pompliano didn’t hold back online. He called out prediction markets, arguing that they enable and even reward insider trading. He sounded furious.

His words spread fast and added criticism about fairness during sensitive political and military moments. Records showed the account had existed for less than a week before Maduro’s capture, which raised concern. Trading activity from this account focused only on markets tied to his removal and US military action against Venezuela, creating doubt. Several wagers appeared within one day of the arrest, adding to claims of access to private information.

At that betting time, Polymarket valued the chance of Maduro’s capture by 31 January at 5.5 per cent. Kalshi, another prediction platform, estimated the chance of Maduro leaving office before February at around 7 per cent. Such low estimates raised questions due to the trader’s accurate timing and narrow interest. Overall, this case increased concern over insider trading and unequal information access across prediction markets. Analysts and online voices highlighted unusual on-chain activity, including strong buying from new wallets focused only on Venezuela markets.