Polymarket Leads US Prediction Market Demand As Kalshi Accelerates Growth

Polymarket remains the dominant brand in the US prediction markets sector, accounting for 71.65% of Brand’s Accumulated Power in July 2026, according to Blask data.

Kalshi followed with 25.09%, meaning the two companies together controlled more than 96 per cent of tracked consumer demand. Blask uses Brand’s Accumulated Power, or BAP, to measure accumulated consumer interest through digital demand signals and search behaviour rather than conventional market share.

The Blask Prediction Markets Index shows how quickly interest in the category has expanded. Consumer demand rose from 1.75 million in August 2025 to 9.79 million in March 2026 before easing to 6.94 million in July.

Polymarket’s BAP increased 15.36% year-on-year despite falling 24.47% month-on-month. Conversely, Kalshi’s BAP rose 191.1% year-on-year and 6.49% month-on-month.

Kalshi leads regulated trading despite Polymarket’s stronger brand demand

Consumer interest and trading activity continue to tell different stories. Polymarket leads clearly on digital demand, while Kalshi has maintained a stronger position in regulated event-contract trading volumes.

During the week of 18 May, Kalshi generated nearly $4 billion in notional volume and accounted for 70.8% of total market activity. Previous Blask analysis identified the same divide, with Polymarket attracting substantially more consumer attention while Kalshi handled the majority of regulated trading volume.

Combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached almost $24 billion by April 2026, according to Pew Research Center. The Block reported that Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US then generated a combined $50.6 billion in July, setting a new monthly record for the sector.

The difference between brand demand and trading volume has become a defining feature of the market, with consumer attention not necessarily translating directly into transaction leadership.

CFTC pushes prediction markets further into mainstream finance

This week President Donald Trump met executives from cryptocurrency and prediction market businesses ahead of the first meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee.

Representatives from Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, DraftKings and other companies sit on the committee. CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig used the inaugural meeting to reaffirm the agency’s authority over prediction markets and promised “clear rules of the road” for the sector.

Selig criticised previous administrations for failing to establish a comprehensive event-contract framework and said the Commission was working to provide greater regulatory certainty. The CFTC has proposed changes to Rule 40.11 that would allow it to prohibit contracts considered susceptible to manipulation.

Additional reporting requirements are also being prepared for fully collateralised event contracts, plus rules covering product governance, market design and consumer protections. Industry executives have kept supporting federal oversight.

Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong described the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets as “unambiguous”, while Kalshi co-founder and COO Luana Lopes Lara argued that consumers benefit from the protections and transparency of a federally regulated system rather than fragmented state-by-state rules.

New entrants grow as state-level regulatory battles continue

Polymarket and Kalshi remain dominant, but the market is attracting a broader range of companies. Myriad ranked third in Blask’s July data with 0.99% BAP, followed by Manifold at 0.81% and PredictIt at 0.31%.

Robinhood, FanDuel, DraftKings, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Fanatics and Gemini also appeared in the rankings. Alpaca recently became another entrant after receiving CFTC approval and joining the National Futures Association.

Growth has been accompanied by continued regulatory disputes. At least 16 US states have considered prediction-market legislation this year, while more than half maintain some restrictions on election betting, according to Pew Research Center.

New York, Washington, Connecticut and Utah are among states challenging certain event contracts on the basis that they resemble gambling products rather than financial instruments. Bernstein projects annual prediction-market trading volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030 and estimates volumes may hit $240 billion in 2026, up 370% year-on-year.

Leading platforms had already recorded around $60 billion in trading volume during the first few months of 2026, exceeding the total reported for 2025.

Polymarket’s demand lead and Kalshi’s trading strength show that brand attention and actual market activity are still developing along different tracks. As more financial and betting brands enter the space, companies that combine consumer trust and strong liquidity are likely to have the biggest advantage.