Key Points
- Better Collective North American EBITDA margin improved to 26% in Q2 2026 from 5% in Q2 2025, making it the main driving force behind group growth.
- Prediction markets rolled out in March 2026 on Action Network and VegasInsider helped boost CPA and revenue share gains in the very same quarter.
- Full-year organic revenue growth guidance remained unchanged at 7% to 12%, despite €4m headwinds due to the UK’s remote gaming duty hike and Brazil’s regulatory costs.
A nine per cent increase in revenues is an impressive figure for affiliate companies. For Better Collective, it might have become a minor issue compared to the results achieved in Q2 2026.
The EBITDA margin of North America before special items climbed from 5% in Q2 2025 to 26% in Q2 2026, a shift of 21 percentage points that represents one of the most impressive regional turns in profit margin ever seen by the Danish sports media group. The region did not just increase. It has been rebuilt through prediction markets, revenue-share agreements, and talent content creation delivering returns even faster than analysts expected.
The total revenue of the group for the quarter ended in June 2026 amounted to €89.1 million, compared to €81.5 million in the same period last year, with EBITDA before special items up 20% to €27 million, increasing the margin two percentage points to 30%. Cash flow from operations before special items increased 59% to €30 million, which equaled to the cash conversion rate of 111%. The earnings grew twice as fast as revenues, which is a sign of a better spending strategy than before.
North America Stopped Being a Problem and Became the Growth Engine
Twelve months ago, North America was the segment Better Collective needed to fix. In Q2 2025, the group’s North American EBITDA margin sat at just 5%, weighed down by lower-quality traffic and high CPA spend that was not converting to lasting revenue-share relationships. That picture has changed sharply.
Revenue share income in North America grew 49% to €6m in Q2 2026, while North American CPA revenue climbed 50% to €5m, driven by prediction market partners. Total North American revenue reached €24.2m, up 35% year on year. Crucially, regional costs barely moved, holding at €18m compared to €17m in Q2 2025, which is precisely how a 5% margin becomes 26%. Revenue climbed; the cost base did not follow.
Playmaker HQ emerged as the standout asset, with North American sponsorship revenue surging 66% to €8.7m as its talent-led formats delivered stronger audience engagement and commercial returns. Playmaker HQ operates through creator-led video and social content, connecting sports audiences with commercial partners in formats that generate premium sponsorship rates rather than lower-yield programmatic advertising.
Prediction Markets: A March Launch That Delivered by June
The speed at which prediction markets fed into Better Collective’s numbers is the detail competitors have most consistently underreported. The company only rolled out dedicated prediction market editorial hubs across VegasInsider and Action Network in March 2026, committing simultaneously to significantly scaling its production of articles, expert analysis and probability-driven insights across sports, politics, culture and entertainment. That was fewer than ninety days before the quarter closed.
Prediction markets are “already making a positive contribution” to Better Collective’s financial performance, co-CEO Jesper Søgaard told analysts following the H1 report. Speaking about the competitive landscape, Søgaard pointed: “We started the year with one player active there, and in the second quarter we got one more into the market. We know that for US sports the start of the NFL is a major milestone; we are really excited about the competition the market will have leading up to the start of the NFL.”
That framing matters. More operators competing for prediction market users is good for Better Collective as a referral business. CFO Flemming Pedersen confirmed during the earnings call that with more prediction market operators entering the market, prices are increasing, which should have a positive impact on metrics in the second half compared to the first.
One number worth watching is the shift in deal economics. The implied CPA per new depositing customer dropped from €300 to €175, partly due to prediction market deal structures and hybrid arrangements. Prediction market users cost less to refer upfront but generate recurring revenue-share income over time. Whether that trade-off strengthens or softens at scale will become clearer once the NFL season starts and operator competition intensifies.
The World Cup Gave a Boost; the Revenue-Share Cohort Extends It
New depositing customers reached 373,000 in Q2, up 24% year on year, with 70% generated through revenue-share agreements. Value of Deposits hit an all-time high of €836m, up 17%. The World Cup, staged across the United States, Canada and Mexico, clearly accelerated customer acquisition during the quarter. Better Collective had spent more than a year preparing its brands and commercial teams for the tournament.
The 70% revenue-share NDC share is what extends the benefit past June. Customers referred under revenue-share deals generate recurring income across the lifetime of their relationship with an operator, not a single one-off fee. A large World Cup acquisition cohort, predominantly signed under revenue-share terms, will continue feeding into earnings well into H2 2026 and beyond.
UK and Brazil Took €4m Off the Top
Better Collective absorbed two regulatory costs simultaneously. The increase in the UK remote gaming duty tax from 21% to 40%, which started on April 1st, amounted to around €2m, and the regulatory change in Brazil also came at around the same cost. Overall, these two changes amounted to a total of €4m against the €11m increase in net revenue. Ongoing pressure in both markets is a reminder that regulatory environments in key territories remain volatile.
Total group costs rose 5% to €62.1m, with direct costs up 14% to €27.3m on World Cup activity and Paid Media spend, while staff costs fell 2% to €26.5m on a smaller headcount. Leaner staffing alongside rising revenue quietly underpins the margin improvement across all three operating segments.
Alberta Entered, the NFL Looms, and Guidance Holds
As the quarter came to a close, Better Collective began operating in a new regulated jurisdiction. On 13 July 2026, the company started operating in Alberta, which became regulated for online sports betting and iGaming on that date with the launch of Action Network, The Nation Network and Canada Sports Betting. This expansion extends Better Collective’s presence in North America to regulated Canada, just before the fall sports season begins.
Better Collective kept its full-year 2026 guidance unchanged, targeting organic revenue growth of 7% to 12% and EBITDA before special items growth of 8% to 18% in constant currencies, alongside €40m in share buybacks and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below three times.
Jesper Søgaard said: “Q2 was a strong quarter for Better Collective, with organic revenue growth of 9% translating into 20% growth in EBITDA before special items to €27m. We are particularly encouraged by the progress in North America, where growth was driven by revenue share income, talent-led media and prediction markets, while the EBITDA margin before special items improved significantly from 5% to 26%. The FIFA World Cup provided the expected boost to the quarter. With full-year guidance maintained, we remain focused on profitable growth, continued operating leverage and building an increasingly scalable and efficient Better Collective.”
Expert Analysis
The 21-percentage-point swing in EBITDA margin in North America is not just a seasonal bonus. It comes from a strategy of improving the structure of revenue sources: increased recurring revenue-share income, more high-margin sponsorship deals, and referral income from prediction markets, which provide monetisation opportunities that are more sustainable than the typical CPA model. The reduced CPA per NDC, which decreased from €300 to €175, is the number to watch carefully, as prediction markets’ customers are cheaper to acquire but need to be retained. With the NFL season coming up, competition from operators increasing, and Alberta going live, Better Collective’s H2 test will be simple – whether its North American business can sustain profitability when the World Cup effect fades away. In this case, the forecast for the whole year will sound prudent and not conservative. In addition, the corporation is anticipating additional restructuring costs in Q3 2026, which indicates that management is already planning for future development while the corporation is successful right now.
Share
7 views
