Gibraltar Gives First Prediction Markets Licence

Key Points

• Gibraltar gave its first prediction markets licence to Predict Street Ltd under the gambling law framework.
• The step comes as a response to pressure from rising UK gambling taxes on operators.
• This stands differently from Europe where many regions restrict such platforms strongly.

Gibraltar Licences First Prediction Markets Operator

Gibraltar has now given its first licence to a prediction markets operator, and this shows a clear shift in its plan for regulation and economy. The update came in Parliament from Minister Nigel Feetham, and he shared this move as part of an effort to expand the gambling and finance system. Officials gave the licence a short time after Feetham joined the Consensus Hong Kong conference and pushed the process forward.

Authorities handled the request under the 2005 Gambling Act since the new law has not started yet. This decision shows the activity is seen as gambling instead of a financial service, reflecting broader industry frameworks around licensing and compliance, as outlined in resources such as What Is a Gambling License and the iGaming Licensing Guide by PMP Media.

Predict Street Ltd is now listed on the Gibraltar register of betting intermediaries with full approval status. The firm got approval on 26 March and now prepares to launch Predictstreet.io on 9 April. It places itself in the sports prediction market and calls itself an official partner for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The platform runs on a blockchain system from ADI Chain based in Abu Dhabi and invites users for early access sign-up.

Economic Pressure and Strategic Reason

The licence decision comes while economic pressure grows due to changes in the United Kingdom’s gambling tax system. The rise in Remote Gaming Duty and Remote Betting Duty may push the tax load for Gibraltar operators close to 80% or even 100%. The gambling sector holds a strong place in Gibraltar’s economy, with about 3,500 workers and near one third of total tax income. Officials stress the need to protect finances and keep stability during this pressure period. Feetham connected prediction market licensing with these issues and said the government aims to balance loss and support the economy. He also increased his role in promoting Gibraltar’s offer to face these growing challenges.

Regulatory Scene and Rising Concern

Gibraltar’s move places it among the early regions in Europe that give license to prediction market operators. This stands opposite to other European systems where rules block or limit such platforms strongly. Prediction markets let users trade based on real event results and draw strong user interest. Yet questions remain on whether they belong under the gambling or financial tool category.

Several countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, France, and Portugal have blocked or limited platforms like Polymarket. In the United Kingdom, the Gambling Commission treats prediction markets as gambling and asks operators to hold a local licence. This means Gibraltar operators who target UK users may face action without extra approval. Malta is now studying plans to create a special system for the regulation of prediction markets. Minister Silvio Schembri pointed to global growth and innovation but also noted the need for clear future law.

Global Context and Industry Movement

Prediction markets show strong growth in the United States where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission controls them as event contracts. Even with this system, some states plan to ban while the Senate bill aims to stop sports prediction markets across the country. Major firms have already entered this space with new platforms. Companies like FanDuel and DraftKings launched prediction services in the US market, while Matchbook in the UK plans a similar step. It is still not clear if Kalshi or Polymarket will apply for a Gibraltar licence or if local iGaming firms will join this area.

Market View and Challenges

Gibraltar’s support for prediction markets shows its plan to take a position in this fast-changing sector. Still, it faces the challenge of attracting operators as traditional betting products dominate markets like the UK. The legal classification of prediction markets keeps shaping how this sector grows across regions. Gibraltar’s choice to treat it under gambling law shows a clear view, yet different global rules may create cross-border issues. As the sector expands, early action may give Gibraltar an advantage, but it may also bring attention from strict regulators.