German Betting Industry Projects Nearly €1bn In World Cup Wagers

Germany’s licensed sports betting sector expects the 2026 FIFA World Cup to generate close to €1bn in total wagers. However, industry representatives warn that a significant share could still be lost to illegal operators.

According to the German Sports Betting Association’s estimates, the tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico will be the biggest betting event of the year for German operators. The association forecasts between €600m and €700m to be wagered with licensed sportsbooks during the competition.

However, it also estimates stakes between €300m and €400m on unlicensed gambling sites. “Games involving German teams, in particular, traditionally generate a high volume of betting activity,” said DSWV president Mathias Dahms. 

“As both a fan and a representative of the sports betting industry, I therefore hope that the German national team stays in the tournament as long as possible.”

Industry Warns Black Market Remains Significant

The size of Germany’s gambling black market is one of the most debated issues on the country’s regulatory scene. According to the DSWV, about one-third of players engage with illegal gambling services to some degree. 

The association also referenced data from the Joint Gambling Authority of the German States (GGL), indicating that illegal market revenue recently grew by 17%, outpacing growth within the licensed sector.

Industry representatives argue that Germany’s regulatory framework limits the ability of legal operators to compete. Dahms highlighted restrictions on certain betting products, including in-play betting markets on select players scoring in a match.

The DSWV has repeatedly raised concerns. Last year, it reported the existence of 382 illegal German-language betting websites compared to only 34 licensed operators, describing the market as “11:1 in favour of the black market.”

Germany’s Regulator Disputes Industry Estimates

A study by the GGL was published in March, estimating Germany’s online gambling channelisation rate at 77.03%, leaving the unregulated sector with a market share of 22.97%. The research valued the illegal online gambling market at approximately €547m during 2024.

“The scientifically calculated channelisation rate confirms our previous assumptions about the extent of the black market,” GGL chair Ronald Benter said at the time.

Furthermore, the regulator focuses on enforcement and international cooperation. During the recent Gambling Regulators European Forum conference in Sofia, authorities discussed illegal gambling, player protection and data-driven supervision.

The GGL also highlighted stronger cooperation under the European Digital Services Act, including improved information sharing and cross-border enforcement against illegal operators.

World Cup May Influence Future Policy Debate

The World Cup arrives at a critical time for Germany’s gambling industry as policymakers prepare to review the 2021 Interstate Gambling Treaty before the end of 2026.

Both regulators and operators will be closely watching how players behave during the tournament. For licensed sportsbooks, the competition offers an opportunity to attract customers toward regulated products.

“Tournaments like the World Cup also offer an opportunity to bring players back into the legal market,” Dahms argued.

The DSWV stressed that only licensed operators can guarantee player protections, secure payments and systems for detecting suspicious betting activity.

“The sports betting market is more securely regulated today than ever before, but this protection only applies within the legal framework,” Dahms said. “That is why we strongly recommend that players place their World Cup bets exclusively with legal, state-licensed providers.”

Expert Opinion

The 2026 World Cup is expected to be a period of massive betting activity with projections of up to $1bn in wagers. However, a significant portion of the bets could be placed on illegal platforms without stronger enforcement. The GGL will play a big role in how Germany maximises revenue from the World Cup.