ADI Predictstreet to Enter Political Markets After Gibraltar Seal of Approval

• Following the FIFA World Cup 2026, Gibraltar has approved ADI Predictstreet to extend its prediction markets into entertainment, culture, weather and selected political events.
• Germany’s GGL has opened a formal investigation into ADI Predictstreet’s World Cup advertising, and the platform has since blocked access for German users.
• The Kalshi partnership is widely expected to drive international growth, though questions remain about how much weight a Gibraltar licence carries in locked European markets.

Gibraltar has cleared ADI Predictstreet to push its prediction market platform into new territory, covering sports, entertainment, culture, weather and selected political events. The expansion was announced on 2 July 2026, marking the close of the platform’s opening regulatory chapter, with a far wider product scope set to follow once the FIFA World Cup 2026 wraps up.

The platform went live just three days before the World Cup opened on 11 June, rolling out across 23 US states and four territories via Fanatics, and into the UK through Matchbook, a betting exchange. The tight timeline drew scrutiny from the outset, with critics questioning whether Gibraltar had moved faster than usual to get the licence across the line ahead of the tournament.

Gibraltar’s regulators signed off on the expansion after judging the platform’s performance across operational resilience, consumer protection, compliance and market integrity as satisfactory. For ADI Predictstreet, the approval landed exactly where the company had been aiming since launch.

“Successfully completing this first phase with Gibraltar validates both our platform and our approach to responsible innovation,” said Dimitrios Psarrakis, Chief Executive Officer of ADI Predictstreet. “While sport was the ideal place to introduce our prediction market platform to a global audience, our ambition has always been to build one where people can participate in forecasting the events that shape our world, from sport and entertainment to culture, weather and beyond.”

“Selected Political Events” Is the Phrase the Industry Cannot Stop Staring At

Three words buried in the announcement are doing the heaviest lifting. Prediction markets have taken sustained heat for political trading, with Polymarket drawing the sharpest criticism after contracts tied to US military actions in Venezuela and Iran pulled insider trading and ethics concerns into the open. ADI Predictstreet is now walking into the same room.

Neither Psarrakis nor the company’s official release gave any working definition of what “selected” actually covers. That qualifier either represents a genuine editorial filter or a piece of regulatory padding, and nobody outside the company knows which. What does not need a qualifier is the fact that ADI Predictstreet is now stepping into markets where the political and commercial exposure is a different order of magnitude.

The platform runs on ADI Chain, a blockchain infrastructure built by the Abu Dhabi-based ADI Foundation, with ZKsync’s Airbender zero-knowledge proof technology underpinning settlement. Kalshi and Polymarket use the same architectural logic; the blockchain layer is not incidental to how these markets operate, it is the mechanism they are built around.

Germany’s Regulator Has Already Opened the File

Germany’s Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) opened formal proceedings against ADI Predictstreet for operating without a German licence in the same week Gibraltar approved the expansion. The company had no authorisation to serve German users, yet its branding ran on pitch-side LED boards across World Cup broadcasts seen by millions.

The GGL confirmed the probe covers two fronts: whether German consumers could access the platform, and whether the advertising violated German gambling marketing law. ADI Predictstreet moved quickly after the intervention, cutting off access for German users, who now land on a page confirming the block. A GGL spokesperson stated the provider had “reacted and blocked access to its service for users from Germany” once the regulator stepped in.

Germany is not acting alone here. France, Belgium, Portugal and the Netherlands have each taken enforcement stances against prediction platforms running without local authorisation. During the World Cup, nine European regulators, including Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, moved together, issuing a joint statement that flagged consumer protection failures and cited concerns around illegality, fund blocking, insider fraud and financial volatility.

Gibraltar Picked a Lane and Has Been Accelerating Ever Since

No other European jurisdiction has formally licensed a prediction market operator. Gibraltar’s first approval landed with ADI Predictstreet in April 2026, processed under the 2005 Gambling Act and later folded into the 2025 Gambling Act once that legislation came into force. WagerWire, the Los Angeles-based firm behind the Wire Markets product, has since received approval in principle, putting it on course to become Gibraltar’s second licensed prediction platform.

Nigel Feetham, KC MP, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, has fronted Gibraltar’s push into this space at every stage.

“When Gibraltar licensed ADI Predictstreet, we saw an opportunity to lead the development of a new regulated sector founded on innovation, integrity and consumer protection,” Feetham said. “In just a few months, that vision has gained global recognition through the FIFA World Cup and a series of landmark international partnerships. It demonstrates how forward-looking regulation can create entirely new markets, attract world-class businesses and reinforce Gibraltar’s position as one of the world’s leading regulatory jurisdictions.”

Gambling accounts for roughly 25% of Gibraltar’s GDP, and an incoming UK tax overhaul is expected to land hard on the territory’s operators, most of whom count Britain as their core market. Prediction markets are one part of how Gibraltar intends to offset that exposure. The territory does require prediction platforms to hold a Betting Intermediary Licence, formally placing them within the licensed betting category. Kalshi and Polymarket have spent considerable energy resisting exactly that label in the US, where both face state-level legal challenges from authorities that treat event contracts as unlicensed gambling.

Where Kalshi Fits into All of This?

ADI Predictstreet confirmed a strategic partnership with Kalshi in the same week Germany opened its investigation. Anyone watching the World Cup from their sofa would have caught both brands on the LED boards ringing the pitches. Kalshi is expected to give ADI Predictstreet a foundation to scale beyond its current footprint internationally, though the specific terms of the arrangement have not been made public.

The logic behind the pairing is not hard to follow. Kalshi brings infrastructure and name recognition in the US market; ADI Predictstreet brings a Gibraltar licence and a FIFA deal that puts prediction markets in front of a global audience for the first time at scale. Whether Kalshi’s involvement actually unlocks markets that a Gibraltar licence cannot reach on its own is the question everyone in the sector will be tracking from here.

Wiztech Group chief executive Yoni Sidi put it plainly in a separate industry discussion: “Gibraltar’s move matters more as a signal than as a passport. It doesn’t give you access to France, Germany, the Netherlands or Sweden.”

Expert Analysis

Gibraltar’s approval is a genuine milestone for ADI Predictstreet, but the regulatory picture around it is far from settled. Germany’s investigation draws a hard line on European ambitions before the expansion has even properly launched, and the choice to include political events as a market category places the company at the centre of the most disputed question in the prediction markets conversation.

Gibraltar’s approach, building a licensing structure around existing gambling statute rather than waiting for bespoke legislation, has given the sector a formal regulatory address that no other European jurisdiction has been willing to provide. The Sidi point stands, though. A Gibraltar licence earns credibility and establishes compliance credentials; it does not carry cross-border rights. Where ADI Predictstreet lands in three years will be decided less by what Gibraltar approves and far more by how France, Germany and the rest choose to read what the platform actually is. Nine of them have already given a strong indication of where they stand.