PredictIt has officially won approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a regulated derivatives exchange. The licenses were granted to Aristotle, the company behind PredictIt, allowing it to run an exchange and a clearinghouse.

Until now, PredictIt ran under a CFTC “no-action letter.” This arrangement allowed it to offer political markets without being a registered exchange, as long as it followed strict limits on trading size which created challenges for PredictIt as it grew in popularity.

Legal Battle Clears the Way for Expansion

In 2022, the CFTC withdrew the no-action letter, claiming PredictIt had not met the terms of the agreement. The agency said the platform had grown beyond its small-scale, academic roots. This sparked a legal battle between PredictIt and the CFTC that lasted more than two years.

In July 2025, a court ruled in favor of PredictIt, allowing it to continue operating. Shortly after, the CFTC issued a revised no-action letter that eased some restrictions. But Aristotle wanted a more permanent solution, so it had filed applications to become a fully regulated exchange and clearinghouse back in late 2021.

This week’s approval from the CFTC makes those applications official and marks a turning point. PredictIt can now operate like other regulated exchanges, offering more flexibility and security for its users.

What This Means for PredictIt and Users

With the new licenses, PredictIt joins a growing list of regulated prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms let users trade on a variety of events, including economic indicators, sports, and politics. The regulated status will allow PredictIt to expand its offerings and reach a wider audience.

Aristotle announced plans to launch the new regulated exchange in October. While full details on the platform’s features and contract types are yet to be revealed, company leaders are confident this will deliver a more transparent experience.

John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, said in a statement, “Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet.” This signals the company’s commitment to growth and innovation in the space.

A New Chapter for Political Prediction Markets

The CFTC’s approval reflects a shift in regulatory attitudes toward prediction markets. After years of caution, the agency embraces regulated platforms that meet compliance standards. Several new exchanges have received green lights recently, showing growing acceptance of this emerging market.

For PredictIt, the approval means legal certainty and the ability to scale operations beyond past restrictions. It also offers opportunities to launch new types of contracts and improve user access to political markets.

As the October launch approaches, the industry will watch closely to see how PredictIt performs as a regulated exchange. With this new status, PredictIt positions to lead the next phase of political forecasting and market innovation.