Banks that invest money raise what they think will happen in 2025 and 2026, since visitors spend more. Macau casino revenue recovery should beat earlier predictions, say multiple investment banks who increased their projections for the sector, according to Macao Daily reporting. These revisions happened because gaming revenue exceeded expectations in the year’s second half, thanks to better tourism products, more marketing work and different customer types.

The latest UBS report indicates Macau full-year casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) grows 9% year-on-year during 2025, representing a small upward change below 1% from earlier forecast. Despite getting better, the number sits 16% under 2019 levels. 2026 sees UBS expecting GGR to climb by an extra 6% year-on-year, yet staying 11% beneath pre-pandemic results. Bank lifted 2027 forecast 2% and predicted 4% yearly growth, but still 7% less than 2019. UBS stated operators having better high-end products plus service positioning will beat the general market since reinvestment patterns become normal and the premium-segment business keeps strong.

UBS Projects Steady Growth in Macau’s Mass-Market Casino Revenue

Macau mass-market casino revenue rises 7% this year, then 6% during 2026, plus an estimated 4% boost in 2027 per UBS expectations. Changes hit VIP revenue projections where 2025 estimates fell 1% reaching a 22% yearly rise, but 2026 forecasts held at 6% growth, and 2027 went up 1% showing 4% increase.

Hong Kong stock market action was mixed for gaming companies. Out of the large players which went up, was Galaxy Entertainment, which saw a 0.7% increase to finish at HK$40.06 (US$5.13). Sands China saw a 1.6% drop to HK$21.06, and MGM China had a very small drop of 0.06% to hit HK$16.74. Wynn Macau fell 1.1% to trade at HK$6.34, and Melco International also had a drop of 1.44% to close at HK$4.79. Also down was SJM Holdings which saw a 1.9% drop to close at HK$2.57. Continued recovery momentum is expected by authorities plus analysts, helped by varied tourism choices and ongoing premium play expansion.