Kalshi, a US-based prediction market company, has launched a new research unit called Kalshi Research. The company says the unit will support academic studies on prediction markets and will position Kalshi as a commercial operator and a provider of data for researchers. Kalshi explained the division is modelled after research initiatives at major artificial intelligence firms and aims to create a formal bridge between its platform and the academic community.

Approved researchers will be given access to anonymised internal platform data so they can study market behaviour, test theories, and produce scholarly work. Kalshi describes this data as “the largest and most comprehensive dataset in the prediction markets sector,” and says the unit will make that resource available under controlled conditions to support rigorous research.

First Study and Upcoming Conference

Along with launching Kalshi Research, the company released its first internal study, which looked at how accurate its inflation forecasts were compared with Wall Street consensus estimates. The study found that Kalshi’s forecasts outperformed traditional benchmarks by about 40% in different market conditions. The company said its forecasts “matched or exceeded consensus expectations on 85% of inflation readings when measured one week in advance.”

The research also showed what Kalshi calls shock alpha, meaning its forecasts were very accurate during times of high market volatility. Kalshi is also holding the first Prediction Market Conference, where researchers, traders, and forecasters can share findings and new ideas. Academics from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago will work with Kalshi Research, and the public can now submit abstracts and register.

Legal Challenges Loom

Kalshi’s research efforts come as the company faces increasing legal challenges over its operations. In ongoing federal cases, Kalshi is contesting state attempts to restrict its sports-related event contracts, arguing that its products should be governed by federal commodities law instead of traditional gambling rules.

This stance has met resistance from tribal governments, state regulators, and industry groups. Court filings from tribal representatives and the American Gaming Association say Kalshi’s approach would circumvent established regulatory frameworks, bypassing the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and state licensing rules and placing oversight under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission without clear congressional approval.

Balancing Scholarship and Regulation

While Kalshi works to build academic credibility and show that prediction markets can be reliable forecasting tools, courts are deciding if the company’s business model follows current legal rules. The decision could affect how far Kalshi Research can expand beyond academic studies into wider market use.

Regardless of regulators or court rulings, Kalshi is moving ahead, calling the research division a new way to understand prediction markets and saying it aims to improve academic knowledge and public trust in the field.