Calls For Regulation Rise Amidst Gambling Concerns Over Blind Boxes

Australia is facing increasing pressure to regulate the fast-growing blind box toy market, as concerns rise about its similarity to gambling mechanics. Blind boxes are sealed packages that contain random figurines, leaving buyers unaware of what they will receive until after purchase.

The category has grown into a global billion-dollar business, driven by brands such as Pop Mart and popular collectibles like Labubu and Smiski. Enthusiasts often spend heavily in pursuit of rare items, with some reportedly spending hundreds or thousands of dollars.

Concerns raised in local reporting suggest the structure behind these products mirrors gambling systems. The combination of random outcomes and repeated purchases has placed the sector under increasing scrutiny from experts and policymakers.

Experts warn of behavioural similarities to gambling

Mark Kempster of the Alliance for Gambling Reform highlighted how blind boxes replicate core elements of gambling behaviour. “When you’re buying something with an unknown outcome, it’s the same as gambling,” he said, pointing to similar patterns already observed in trading cards and collectible markets across Australia. 

Regulators outside the country have also taken notice. In Singapore, the Gambling Regulatory Authority has begun examining the risks tied to these products, particularly their appeal to younger audiences.

Board member Cecilia Chu warned that early exposure to such mechanics could shape long-term habits. Since February, authorities in Singapore have been drafting rules aimed at controlling how blind boxes are marketed and sold.

These developments reflect growing concern that seemingly harmless collecting may introduce users to risk-driven behaviour at an early stage.

Psychology behind repeated purchases and reward cycles

Experts say the appeal of blind boxes is rooted in behavioural psychology. Gary Mortimer of Queensland University of Technology explained that the excitement of opening a box triggers dopamine, which is associated with pleasure and reward.

This response is driven by anticipation and uncertainty, creating a cycle that encourages repeated purchases. Mortimer linked the effect to Burrhus Skinner’s theory of Operant Conditioning, which shows how unpredictable rewards reinforce behaviour more strongly than predictable ones.

“If rewards are predictable, people lose interest quickly. But when outcomes are uncertain, behaviour becomes much harder to stop,” he explained.

The structure of blind boxes therefore relies on the same psychological triggers that underpin gambling engagement.

Spending patterns fuel concerns and push for intervention

Financial research has added another layer to the debate. Analysis from ANZ found that consumers are more likely to keep buying when they fail to obtain a desired item early.

According to the research, “People don’t know which one they’ll get, so they keep buying until they find the one they want. If they don’t find it in the first few boxes, they may feel that they can continue buying further – since they already have bought a few.”

This pattern, often described as chasing, reflects behaviour commonly seen in gambling environments. Buyers continue spending in the hope of eventually achieving a desired outcome.

Advocates are now calling for both regulation and education to address these risks. Kempster stressed the importance of early awareness, particularly among young consumers. “You need to understand the pitfalls and the issues that can come from it if you fall into it at a young age,” he said.