Tarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO and co-founder, revealed the Coalition for Prediction Markets launch with Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Underdog. X platform hosted the announcement, where Mansour described the group as a defence against lobbying interests blocking sector growth. Prediction market operators now have a unified voice through this coalition defending transparency, market integrity, and customer protection standards. Millions of Americans participate in prediction markets as traders or observers, according to Mansour’s statement. Economists, journalists, policymakers, and news organisations use these markets for forecasting data nowadays. Traditional opinion polls get outperformed by prediction markets in many cases, based on track records.

Legacy interests escalate opposition, which prompted the coalition’s formation, say founders. $150bn in annualised trading volumes prove that prediction markets became a pivotal consumer internet application, per Mansour. Recent criticism includes misinformation about market function and regulation driven by economic motives, not consumer concerns. Prediction markets differ from gambling products like casinos or sportsbooks fundamentally. Open competitive markets let participants trade against each other without the house taking opposite positions. Equities or derivatives exchanges operate similarly to these prediction market structures. Winners face no structural penalty, unlike traditional gambling models in these markets.

Prediction Market Regulations Need a New Approach

Policymakers will receive direct engagement from the coalition explaining these differences and promoting federal oversight consistency. Clear, uniform rules comparable to modern financial markets should govern prediction markets, not state gambling regulations. The initial coalition members list excluded Gemini, though potential inclusion remains possible for the company. US licence for prediction markets reached Gemini this week, following the designated contract market licence application from 10 March 2020. Institutional momentum within the sector gains strength from this development.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) actions receive close attention from industry participants regarding regulatory signals. Conditional acceptance within existing legal frameworks appears likely despite the absence of a comprehensive policy statement. Current regulatory limits accommodate certain operators, which CFTC acknowledged repeatedly without enforcement action against core activities. 12 December saw the regulator confirm a no-action position on swap data reporting and recordkeeping for Polymarket, Gemini, and LedgerX products. Compliant prediction market platforms perceive regulatory tolerance reinforcement from this action.