The prediction market is also focusing on Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, and Washington. Roundup: Arizona regulators sent a letter to sportsbook and fantasy operators warning about offering event contracts. Recent Meta platform ads on Facebook and Instagram show Kalshi targeting big states without legalised sports betting, claiming it is already legal in those locations. The platform is pushing its sports betting product as football season begins. Kalshi seeks bettors in states without regulated markets, avoiding competition from FanDuel, DraftKings, and other operators. Kalshi continues advertising that sports betting is legal in all 50 states. Earlier this summer, the company appeared interested in distancing itself from betting terms.

Prediction Markets Roundup

Arizona warns regulated operators, via letter, against offering prediction markets. The Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG) warned licensed sports betting and fantasy operators that offering prediction markets outside Arizona could risk their licenses. The warning came through a letter obtained by InGame, sent Monday to licensed operators. Jackie Johnson, ADG director, wrote that partnerships with companies selling event contracts outside Arizona could affect licensing. The ADG language suggests that event contracts offered anywhere in the United States might endanger operators in Arizona, which is one of the country’s largest regulated sports betting markets.

Prediction Markets Are Booming, and Oversight Is Barely There

When fighting the CFTC in court over election markets in 2024, Kalshi argued that Congress’s restrictions targeted sports betting, not election predictions. Lawyers said Congress meant events like the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, and the Masters Golf Tournament. A year later, Kalshi introduced markets to those same sports events. Kalshi argued it cannot be defined as gambling because traders compete with each other, not a house. Andrew Kim, a gaming lawyer and Event Horizon writer, said parts of the argument may hold legally, but the defence is weak. There are exchange wagering outlets usually regulated under state gambling laws. He explained that poker also involves a rake without house play, but regulators still classify it as gambling.

Daniel Negreanu Talks New Partnership with Kalshi (PokerNews)

Daniel Negreanu brings his prediction skills beyond poker by joining Kalshi in a new partnership. He told PokerNews he has played on Kalshi for a while and discussed helping the platform grow. He said he enjoys the markets daily, betting $100 or $250, not mainly for profit. One of his bets asked if Trump would ban lab-grown meat before year-end. He chose no, paying a high price. Negreanu openly calls his activity betting.

Wall Street Bets: Prediction Markets, etc. (CDC Gaming)

JP Morgan’s Daniel Politzer wrote on September 15 that DraftKings and FanDuel face mixed outcomes with prediction markets. Risks from regulators, tribes, and leagues continue to grow. He noted the total addressable market reward remains, but operators will likely wait before acting. Kalshi’s NFL trading volumes suggest almost no cannibalisation. David Katz of Jefferies wrote on September 11 that any legal ruling is likely to favour DraftKings and Flutter.

Peterffy Says Prediction Markets May Overshadow Equities (Bloomberg)

Interactive Brokers Chair Thomas Peterffy told Bloomberg The Close that prediction markets could eventually overshadow equities.