Independent analysis for the Betting and Gaming Council reveals proposed duty increases might reduce economic output. The illegal gambling market could expand, too. Ernst & Young (EY) released a new report warning about proposed UK betting and gaming taxation reforms. The sector’s economic contribution could drop while unregulated gambling activity rises. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) commissioned the report called Impacts of Changes to Betting and Gaming Taxation. His Majesty’s Treasury received it before the Autumn 2025 Budget.

Several reform scenarios are modelled in the report, including remote betting and gaming duty alignment. Excise rate increases across the sector also appear in the analysis. Aligning General Betting Duty and Remote Gaming Duty at 21% would boost Treasury revenue by £250m ($332.9m) initially. EY’s analysis discovered this finding. The consultancy explained wider change effects like reduced stakes, lower industry profitability and venue closures. Proposals from the Social Market Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy Research were also modelled in the report. Both organisations demanded higher duty rates reaching 50% on remote gaming.

EY Report Warns of £2bn GVA Losses from Gambling Tax Hikes

EY calculated GVA losses exceeding £2bn under those scenarios. Employment reduction across the supply chain would happen, too. BGC member data, Gambling Commission industry statistics and HMRC receipts formed EY’s modelling foundation. Consumer sensitivity to price changes and regulatory reforms would amplify any tax rise impact, including the 2023 White Paper measures. Unlicensed operator exposure would increase, according to the study’s further warnings. Sharp tax level rises could push 8% of activity into the black market.

Gambling taxation debate intensifies as these findings emerge. British racing stakeholders held a one-day strike in August after betting duty alignment proposals threatened the sport’s financial sustainability. The Betting and Gaming Council wants constructive Treasury dialogue through this report. The forthcoming Budget might include potential gambling taxation adjustments.