Kalshi Gains Ground During NFL Divisional Round

US sportsbook apps recorded weaker results during the NFL Divisional Round, as overall real money gaming downloads fell compared to last year. Data from Citizens analyst Jordan Bender shows that operators representing about 99% of the legal US and Canadian market recorded a combined 836,000 downloads.

This figure represents a 2% decline year over year. This continues a longer trend, with weekly real money gaming downloads falling year over year for 12 consecutive weeks.This excludes one off boosts from the Hard Rock Michigan launch and the opening of the Missouri market. The numbers suggest that user growth across the sector remains under pressure even during peak sports moments.

Major sportsbook brands see weaker downloads

Several leading sportsbook brands struggled to attract new users during the playoff window. BetMGM posted a sharp 25% drop in downloads compared to the same period last year. Caesars also recorded an 8% decline, while FanDuel saw downloads fall by 14%. This continued a weaker run for FanDuel that started around the middle of the NFL season.

DraftKings was the only major operator to post any growth, though the increase was modest. The operator recorded a one percent year over year rise in downloads during the Divisional Round. According to Bender, these mixed results reflect a wider industry shift. Many sportsbooks have reduced promotions in order to protect profits, especially in the second half of the NFL season.

Kalshi surges as an alternative platform

While sportsbooks slowed, prediction market platform Kalshi moved in the opposite direction. Kalshi recorded around one million app downloads during the NFL playoffs, marking the highest two week download market share in its history. During the Divisional Round, Kalshi also led all apps in total downloads, beating traditional sportsbooks and daily fantasy platforms.

Bender pointed to Kalshi as a growing challenge for the betting industry. “We believe Kalshi is one of the main headwinds for customer acquisition and handle growth across the betting space in recent months, as we estimate the current cannibalising impact on the legal sports betting space is equivalent to 5% of the sports betting handle,” He said.

The findings suggest Kalshi is drawing attention and spending away from licensed sportsbooks.

Changing habits during big sporting events

Season-to-date data highlight the changing user behaviour. FanDuel and DraftKings still lead in downloads but remain below last year’s levels in several weeks. Hard Rock recorded a 43% year over year increase during the Divisional Round, though this was not enough to lift the wider market.

The data shows that during big events like the NFL playoffs, users are turning to options beyond traditional sportsbook betting. As sportsbooks cut back on spending and promotions, they may need to adjust to growing interest in prediction markets and other alternative betting platforms.

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